Lately, I've been a bit hesitant to be too confident about on-chain data... Honestly, you think you're watching "real-time," but in reality, you're just seeing what others have relayed to you. Slow node synchronization, RPC queuing delays, indexers still scanning blocks—what you see as a "sudden surge/outflow" might already be old news from a few minutes ago.

I thought a certain address just dumped a bunch of tokens, and I almost pressed sell in a panic... but then I switched to another RPC and saw the transaction had already been confirmed, the labels hadn't updated yet, and my emotions were driven by the tools. Recently, those on-chain data tools and label systems have been criticized for lagging or misleading, which isn't surprising.

Anyway, I now treat on-chain data as a "delayed recording," and signals need cross-verification. Otherwise, if I lose money, I’ll just turn off the computer and go for a walk—don't fight the delay.