Recently, the aluminum market has been showing quite interesting movements. It has maintained an upward trend since the beginning of the year, reflecting a significant decrease in global inventories and supply constraints.

The reason for the rising price of 1kg of aluminum ultimately comes down to a supply shortage issue. China has been tightening environmental regulations and energy consumption restrictions, maintaining production caps, which significantly impacts global supply. Additionally, geopolitical factors such as U.S. tariffs on Chinese aluminum products and the Russia-Ukraine war are increasing price volatility.

On the demand side, things are not bad either. Structural demand continues to grow, driven by eco-friendly industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power infrastructure. The recovery of industries such as construction, automotive, and aerospace, which are directly linked to the price trend of 1kg of aluminum, is also a positive sign.

Currently, prices are around $3,200 since the beginning of the year. ING Research projects an average of $2,900 for this year, and Goldman Sachs has mentioned the possibility of a correction down to $2,350 in the second half. However, considering that current prices are already quite high, a significant drop to that level seems unlikely.

Looking at the outlook for the price of 1kg of aluminum, it is likely to remain relatively stable through 2026. Fully resolving supply constraints is difficult, and demand fundamentals remain solid structurally. Still, variables like global economic recession, carbon emission regulations, and energy cost changes should be continuously monitored.

Personally, I think trading CFDs could be a good option in this environment. When it's uncertain whether aluminum prices will go up or down, you can take both long and short positions. You don't have to worry about storing physical metal, and leveraging can improve capital efficiency. Of course, leverage is a double-edged sword, so it increases the risk of losses, and should be used cautiously.

To trade the price movements of 1kg of aluminum via CFDs, first open an account on a global trading platform, then search for aluminum products (usually under the code 'ALUMINIUM') and start trading. The key is to accurately predict the price direction through technical and fundamental analysis, and to stay updated with the latest news related to aluminum.

In the current market environment, I think it's a good time to consider trading aluminum. The two main drivers—supply constraints and structural demand growth—are actively at play. If you're interested, give it a try.