I went back and looked at the trades of a few older NFTs again. How should I put it—the floor price is like a thermometer: when the community heats up, it spikes; when the narrative turns cold, it immediately just gives up and lies there. Royalties are more like a cut: when the market is good, everyone pretends not to notice, but the moment liquidity gets tight, they start arguing, “Why do they still have to deduct it?”

The biggest thing I fear as someone who watches budgets is this: the story gets told with the sky as the limit, but in the end, nobody is willing to place orders to step in and take the position. On-chain data is far more honest than the emotions in the group chat.

And on top of that, with some regions tightening or loosening taxes and compliance rules—one moment strict, the next moment relaxed—once expectations for deposits and withdrawals change, people’s hands get even tighter, and it’s normal that the floor price can’t hold up.

Anyway, I’m still trusting projects where “someone is genuinely doing work,” but before I make a move, I always fall back on this: who’s actually doing the job, and where did the money go?