I've been observing the Ibex 35 these past few weeks, and honestly, it's been a roller coaster. After reaching 18,500 in mid-April, the index has fallen nearly 4.56% and is hovering around 17,640 points. Lots of volatility, significant geopolitical uncertainty at play, and the banking sector has been the hardest hit. The short-term stock market predictions I see point to a fairly sideways consolidation for now.

What's interesting is how investors have rotated. Banks (BBVA, Santander, CaixaBank), which were the driving force until recently, are now under pressure due to interest rate issues. Meanwhile, capital has shifted toward defensive sectors: Naturgy and utilities are acting as safe havens. Solaria was the star of the week with an +8.81%, with the market rewarding renewables amid rising energy costs. In contrast, Aena took the worst hit with -8.86%, scared by the skyrocketing jet fuel prices. Amadeus also suffered.

From a technical perspective, the short-term stock market predictions I handle suggest that the critical support is at 17,500-17,600 points. If it holds there, the underlying bullish trend remains intact. Resistance is at 18,000-18,100, and the goal to regain momentum would be to return to 18,500. But here’s the important part: the market is in 'wait and see' mode. The quarterly results coming out now will be decisive. If Ibex companies maintain decent margins despite global weakness, we could rebound. If not, a larger adjustment will be needed.

What to watch is geopolitics and oil. Tensions have cooled compared to the beginning of the month, but any resurgence in the Middle East could send crude prices soaring again, impacting operating margins. There's also the matter of central banks and their messages about interest rates. And well, valuations remain demanding, so the market is looking for real growth confirmations before attempting new highs. Meanwhile, short-term stock market predictions indicate that the structure is sideways-bearish. Patience, prudence, and let’s see what the results and central bank statements say in the coming weeks.