The USD/CAD exchange rate has been sending interesting signals lately. Looking at the situation between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar, a medium-term bearish trend is dominant, but there is also a possibility of a technical rebound at the same time.

Currently, technical analysis indicators show buy signals in the short-term moving averages, but long-term indicators still remain bearish. The support level is around 1.36, while resistance levels are seen at 1.37 and in the 1.40–1.41 range. If the support level breaks, there is a high likelihood that the rate could decline an additional 3% over the next three months.

Looking ahead to the 2026 forecast for the Canadian-US exchange rate, a general downward trend is expected. Especially in the first half of the year, a bearish trend seems likely, and while there may be a slight recovery from September to November, it is expected to decline again by the end of the year.

Key factors influencing the Canadian-US exchange rate include: US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada interest rate policies, economic indicators (employment, inflation, GDP) of both countries, and fluctuations in international oil prices. Since Canada is an energy resource exporter, there is a high negative correlation with oil prices.

Points to check when investing: monitor major indicator release schedules via economic calendars, set stop-loss and take-profit orders to eliminate emotional trading, avoid excessive leverage, and diversify investments across different assets to reduce portfolio risk.

Given that the outlook for the Canadian-US exchange rate leans toward weakness, it seems strategic to focus on short positions in the first half of the year. Of course, since volatility can occur, proper risk management is essential.