Recently, I noticed a fairly interesting market phenomenon. Many people are still looking at commodities through the lens of traditional business cycles, but in reality, this logic has started to fail.

In the past, commodities tended to move in line with the global manufacturing PMI: when the economy was strong, demand increased and prices rose, and vice versa. But now, some commodities are starting to decouple from traditional economic indicators, with structural long-term demand behind them providing support. The power consumption of AI data centers is comparable to that of a small city. From servers to cooling systems to grid upgrades, every link requires large amounts of copper. The amount of copper used in electric vehicles is 3 to 4 times that of traditional gasoline-powered cars. In addition to charging stations and energy storage systems, as well as solar and wind power installations, these demands won’t disappear because of short-term economic fluctuations. With aging global power grids, the integration of renewable energy, and concentrated power supply for AI compute centers, developed countries are entering a long electricity-grid upgrade cycle lasting more than 10 years. Copper and aluminum are the most direct beneficiaries. Even nuclear energy has returned to the policy spotlight: Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are investing, which provides long-term support for uranium demand.

In other words, when people talk about commodity concept stocks now, the core logic has shifted from “business cycle” to “structural trends.” Personally, I categorize the five major groups of the most prominent commodities in the market for tracking.

Copper is the first one worth focusing on. There is a saying in the market that “copper is the new oil of the AI era.” The logic is simple: all power upgrades and transmission require copper. If you look up mining companies’ annual reports, you’ll find that they are all warning that the global copper supply gap may persist in the long term. That’s because from the discovery of new mines to reaching production takes an average of 7 to 10 years, and ore grades at existing mines are continuing to decline. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) recently cut its production target due to a mudslide incident at an Indonesian mine. However, China Securities still expects a recovery in the second half of the year. For long-term bullish copper investors, short-term operational disruptions like this can actually be an opportunity. As the world’s largest mining company with a large amount of copper resource holdings, BHP has promising prospects.

The logic for gold and silver is different. Traditionally, they have been tools for hedging risk and fighting inflation. But silver has an additional structural tailwind: it is indispensable in welding materials for solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI servers. Silver supply comes as a byproduct of lead-zinc mines. Because there is no major expansion of independent silver mines, it creates a long-term supply bottleneck. Global long-term problems in debt and the monetary system are also causing gold to be continuously bought by central banks around the world. As the world’s largest gold miner, Newmont is expected to keep its gold production stable in the near term, while also producing byproducts such as copper, silver, and zinc—making it a core commodity concept stock for participating in the long-term gold trend.

Uranium mines and nuclear energy have clearly been getting more attention recently. After AI data centers’ power consumption surged dramatically, the market has started to revisit the necessity of nuclear power as a baseload power source. Microsoft has signed a contract with Constellation to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, and Google and Amazon are also investing in small modular reactors. Although spot prices for uranium may fluctuate, long-term contract prices are rising.

As for oil and natural gas, there is an interesting contradiction. On the one hand, there is talk of energy transition; on the other, AI and global power demand have surged, making natural gas important again. U.S. LNG exports continue to reach new record highs. Exxon Mobil estimates that from 2026 to 2030, it will invest 28 to 33 billion dollars each year to increase natural gas production and reduce oil costs.

Rare earths and other critical minerals present a different picture. AI and military supply chains are highly dependent on rare earths. China still controls around 70% of global rare earth mining and about 90% of refining and separation capacity. The U.S., Australia, and Canada are accelerating the construction of independent supply chains, but in the short term it will be difficult to dislodge China’s leading position. This is why stocks related to rare earths can be highly volatile.

If I were to allocate commodity concept stocks, I would prefer using an ETF plus a selection of individual stocks. The benefit of ETFs is that they avoid a single miner significantly underperforming the commodity price due to operational problems. The SPDR Materials Select Sector ETF (XLB) includes major U.S. commodity companies, and since the beginning of the year it has gained about 13%. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is the world’s largest copper miners ETF, with total assets of about 7.764 billion dollars. Copper is the metal that benefits most directly from AI data centers and power grid upgrades. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) focuses on uranium mining and nuclear-related companies, providing the most direct exposure to the uranium market.

Individual stocks often fluctuate much more than ETFs. For example, if copper prices rise 10%, FCX might rise 15 to 20%, but it will fall just as sharply. Many commodity markets move fast and create opportunities that truly come from trend waves, geopolitical events, or breakouts in commodity prices. Commodity stocks often attract high-leverage capital inflows and outflows. Once momentum among the bulls loosens, the sell-pressure from a stampede can be fierce. My trading principle is that any single commodity stock should not exceed 5% of total capital, and each trade must have a fixed stop-loss.

For those who want more flexible trading of commodity price moves, I personally prefer using a CFD platform to trade gold, silver, crude oil, and copper. Because you can go long or short, it supports leverage, and trading conditions are more flexible; there’s no worry about futures expiration and rollovers, and the entry threshold is lower. Futures trading requires a high level of professionalism and has high margin requirements, which makes it less suitable for most retail investors. If you’re interested in commodity price action, you can start by practicing with a demo account to track the correlations between copper prices, gold prices, and uranium stocks. Then, once you’re familiar with the rhythm, switch to trading with real capital. Note that CFD trading is a high-risk investment and could lead to losses of principal.

When investing in commodity concept stocks, you should also pay attention to several key indicators. On the demand side, raw materials related to industry and infrastructure mainly depend on China. As the country that has imported the most global commodities over the past decade or so, China’s demand directly affects supply prices. On the supply side, when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022, food prices surged, showing that supply shortages can also create investment opportunities. For mining investments, you should watch environmental regulations, mine accidents, and conditions at oilfields—these can all cause price volatility in the short term. On the logistics side, many commodities are transported via bulk shipping, and the BDI index can be used as an indicator for forecasting prices. Geopolitical impacts on import and export markets and tariffs require attention to how relevant policies affect which products. Regulations also matter a lot: global environmental regulations are becoming increasingly strict, so many companies producing high-carbon, high-energy-consuming commodities face rising costs. Interest rate levels mainly affect gold. Since central banks worldwide tend to favor QE, many are even starting to discuss de-dollarization—shifting foreign exchange deposits to buy gold.

Overall, the investment logic for commodity concept stocks has shifted from short-term business cycles to long-term structural trends, creating new opportunities for patient investors.