I was monitoring gold movements this month, and the topic is really quite interesting. The year started with crazy strength – it reached close to $5,600 in January, but then entered a sharp correction in March, losing about 12% of its value. Now in May, gold is moving around $4,700-$4,800, which is still a historically high level but far from the peak.

The question everyone is asking now: Will gold rise again or have we seen its best?

From an analytical perspective, the fundamentals still support the precious metal. Inflation is starting to return – I read that the US Consumer Price Index jumped to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February. This means price pressures have re-emerged after a period of relative calm. With unstable geopolitical situations and increasing global risks, demand for safe havens remains strong.

Major banks have significantly raised their forecasts. JPMorgan expects gold to reach $6,300 by the end of the year, and UBS raised its target to $6,200 with a bullish scenario that could reach $7,200 if tensions escalate. Even Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs are talking about levels of $6,000 and $5,400 respectively. The average forecast from 30 analysts surveyed by Reuters reached $4,746, the highest annual average since 2012.

But there are also downward pressures – the strength of the dollar and rising US bond yields constrain the upside. Any indication from the US Federal Reserve of raising interest rates again could break the momentum.

Regarding investment, I see gold as worth a place in any portfolio, especially in these times. But it’s important to set your goals first – do you want protection against inflation in the long term, or are you looking for quick profits from volatility?

For long-term investing, gold bars and coins are safe but require storage and security. For short-term trading, contracts for difference (CFDs) offer greater flexibility – you can profit from both rises and falls without actually owning the gold. But beware of leverage – it amplifies gains but also amplifies losses.

In the end, the question of whether gold will rise isn’t that simple. The answer depends on what happens with inflation, the dollar, and US interest rates. But current indicators suggest that the precious metal still has room to grow in the medium and long term, especially if geopolitical pressures continue. The key is to have a clear plan and stick to it instead of following every daily move.