Industry Power Struggle—The "Proxy War" Between CEX, DeFi, and Mining Companies

Who are the winners and losers behind the Clarity Act? Who is lobbying? Who is resisting?

Any regulatory legislation does not happen in a vacuum. Behind the Clarity Act is a fierce battle among different factions within the crypto industry. Understanding these conflicts of interest is essential to more accurately assess the likelihood of legislation.

Supporters: Centralized Exchanges (CEX) and Compliance Factions
Companies like Coinbase, Circle, Galaxy Digital, and others are the most active promoters of the Clarity Act. Why? Because currently, the SEC and CFTC have ambiguous jurisdiction over digital assets, causing exchanges to be unsure which tokens can be listed and which are securities. The Clarity Act clarifies that "sufficiently decentralized tokens are commodities and fall under CFTC jurisdiction," which significantly reduces uncertainty for CEXs. These companies have already spent tens of millions of dollars lobbying, with crypto industry lobbying expenditures expected to exceed $120 million in 2025–2026.

Opponents: SEC and Progressive Lawmakers
SEC Chair Gary Gensler (even if replaced, the institutional stance remains) believes the Clarity Act could lead to regulatory arbitrage, allowing many tokens to escape securities law constraints. Progressive lawmakers Warren, Sherman, and others, along with consumer rights organizations, emphasize that the bill could increase risks of scams and market manipulation. Although their lobbying funds are less than those of the crypto industry, they hold influence in media and public opinion.

Internal Conflicts: DeFi Native Ecosystem Opposition
Interestingly, some DeFi projects (such as core contributors to Uniswap and Lido) are cautious or even oppose the Clarity Act. They worry that the "decentralization test" threshold in the bill is too high, and many genuine DeFi protocols could be deemed "centralized," thus falling under SEC jurisdiction. Additionally, the bill requires protocol developers to assume certain responsibilities, which contradicts the spirit of decentralization. Therefore, the crypto industry is not monolithic.

Conclusion: Supporters have stronger funding and organizational capacity, but opponents benefit from regulatory agencies and some public opinion. Passing the bill in the short term is more challenging. I estimate the legislative probability by 2026 at 35%.
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