Recently analyzing the 30-year historical data of gold price charts, I realized how crazy this wave of market has been. From over $2,000 at the beginning of 2024 to breaking through $5,100 now, in just two years it has surged over 150%, a return far exceeding most assets.

Speaking of the story of gold, it starts from 1971. That year, Nixon announced the detachment of the dollar from gold, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, and gold began to be priced freely in the market. Previously fixed at $35 an ounce, it was suddenly liberated, causing market confidence in the dollar to collapse, and everyone scrambled to buy gold. From $35 to $850, this was the first bull market, a 24-fold increase.

Then in the 1980s, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates by over 20%, causing gold to crash by 80%, after which it entered a long bear market, oscillating between $200 and $300 for a full 20 years. How many 20-year periods in life can you wait? That’s also why I believe gold is not suitable for purely long-term holding.

After the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, another wave came, rising from a low of $250 to $1,921 in 2011, lasting 10 years. The background included 9/11, the Iraq War, the 2008 financial crisis, and the US’s crazy QE. But after the European debt crisis in 2011, the Fed ended QE, and gold entered an 8-year bear market, dropping over 45%.

Now, this wave started from $1,200 in 2019 and has risen to over $5,000, an increase of more than 300%. The driving forces are clear: de-dollarization worldwide, central banks frantically buying gold, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions, US tariff policies, and a weakening dollar. Especially between 2024 and 2025, it’s truly an epic market.

Looking at the 30-year pattern of gold price charts, I found that every bull market begins with a credit crisis and loose monetary policy. The early stage of a bull is slow grind, the middle accelerates due to crisis, and the late stage sees speculative overheat. On average, it lasts 8 to 10 years, with gains of 7 to 24 times. Usually, a bull ends because of aggressive tightening to suppress inflation—examples include the rate hikes in 1980 and the end of QE in 2011.

But this time is different. Global government debt has already reached frightening levels, and central banks simply cannot raise interest rates significantly like in the past. So, the traditional tightening cycle may not happen. A more likely scenario is that gold prices will oscillate at a high level for several years, forming a high plateau. The real signal of ending might only come when a completely new global monetary system emerges.

Compared to stocks, over the past 50 years, gold has increased 120 times, while the Dow Jones has risen 51 times. It seems gold is more explosive. But during these 50 years, gold’s gains have not been smooth; from 1980 to 2000, it was stagnant for 20 years. Looking at the last 30 years, stock returns have actually been better.

The logic of investing in gold is clear: catching the right cycle can lead to big gains, missing it means lying flat for many years. Gold’s main profit comes from price differences, as it doesn’t generate interest, so timing entries and exits is crucial. My advice is to invest in stocks during economic growth periods and allocate gold during recessions. The safest approach is to set reasonable proportions among stocks, bonds, and gold based on risk attributes.

If you want to do swing trading in gold, futures or CFDs are options. The advantage of CFDs is more flexible trading, with small capital requirements to open an account, making it more friendly for retail investors than futures. They support two-way trading—going long or short. With T+0 trading, you can trade anytime, execution is fast, and stop-loss and take-profit can be set.

Ultimately, gold is a very good investment tool, but the key is to grasp the cycle. Markets change rapidly—lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and rate hikes are blood lessons. Holding a diversified asset allocation of stocks, bonds, and gold can offset some volatility risks and make investments more stable. Recently, analyzing the 30-year trend of gold price charts has further strengthened my belief in the importance of diversified allocation.