Recently, many people have been asking if gold will continue to rise, so I’ve organized my observations.

To be honest, the recent gold rally isn’t that simple. On the surface, it seems driven by rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, but the real root cause is cracks in the global credit system. The foreign exchange reserve freeze event in 2022 directly shook people’s confidence in the dollar, and gold, as the only asset that cannot be unilaterally frozen, became the last line of insurance.

Just look at the actions of central banks. Last year, global central banks purchased over 1,200 tons of gold, exceeding a thousand tons for four consecutive years. More importantly, 76% of central banks say they will increase their gold holdings and reduce dollar reserves over the next five years. This isn’t short-term speculation; it’s a long-term asset allocation adjustment quietly underway by countries.

Short-term volatility factors are also at play. Uncertainty around tariffs, expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks—all are causing impulsive surges in gold prices. Plus, with stock markets already at historic highs, many are diversifying risk by allocating to gold. Media and social media hype also fuel this, with short-term capital rushing in regardless of cost, creating a continuous upward trend.

So, will gold keep rising? According to institutional forecasts, the consensus by 2026 is an average annual price between $4,800 and $5,200, with year-end targets of $5,400 to $5,800, and optimistic scenarios even reaching $6,000 to $6,500. Major banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citibank are all raising their forecasts, mainly due to ongoing central bank purchases, rate cut expectations, and safe-haven demand.

But I have to be honest—gold’s rally has never been a straight line. Earlier this year, due to a rebound in real interest rates, there was a sharp 18% correction. Volatility is normal. If you’re a short-term trader, there are opportunities around U.S. market data releases, but you must set strict stop-losses. If you’re a beginner, don’t blindly chase highs—start small and test the waters.

In the long run, gold is suitable as a diversification tool in an investment portfolio, but be prepared for a 20% or more pullback. Physical gold trading costs can be as high as 5-20%, and frequent trading can eat into profits. It’s better to consider gold ETFs or spot trading instruments, which offer better liquidity.

My view is: issues like persistent inflation, debt pressure, and geopolitical tensions are still present, and central banks’ gold-buying trend won’t suddenly stop. The bottom for gold will keep rising, with limited downside in bear markets and strong momentum in bull markets. But the key is to have a systematic approach to monitoring, not just follow news blindly. Clarify whether you’re short-term, long-term, or strategic, then decide how to enter. Will gold keep rising? The answer depends on whether you can stick to your strategy amid volatility.