Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: Gold and silver prices diverge, gold fluctuates and consolidates, silver surges

Gold and silver trends diverge, with gold fluctuating and consolidating, while silver surges. Peru’s energy crisis may impact mineral production, raising concerns over silver supply. From a macro perspective, the U.S. non-farm payrolls in April unexpectedly rebounded, and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue a cautious wait-and-see stance in the short term, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for precious metals. However, the U.S. labor market still has hidden risks; if geopolitical tensions gradually ease, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year could be restored. In the medium to long term, the price center of precious metals has a foundation for sustained upward movement: on one hand, geopolitical risk levels are rising, and the reorganization of the global political and economic order is ongoing; on the other hand, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are intensifying, and Trump’s frequent interventions in the Federal Reserve’s independence are also contributing. Therefore, the process of de-dollarization will continue, with global central banks increasing their gold reserves, a trend that China’s central bank has maintained for 18 consecutive months. Silver, platinum, and palladium possess both financial and industrial attributes, generally following the movement of the precious metals sector, but with relatively greater elasticity. (Shenwan Hongyuan Futures)