Lately, people keep asking me, "Can I buy gold now?" Honestly, that's a good question because it’s not just about the price, but also about mindset.

Let me start with the conclusion: gold has potential right now, but only if you understand what you're doing.

The recent rise in gold prices seems to be driven by old routines like expectations of rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks on the surface, but the real story runs deeper. After 2022, global central banks' confidence in the US dollar began to waver. The incident of foreign exchange reserves being frozen completely changed how countries think — gold became the only asset that cannot be unilaterally frozen. Since then, central banks have never truly stopped buying gold. Last year, global net gold purchases exceeded 1,200 tons, marking the fourth consecutive year of over 1,000 tons. This isn’t short-term speculation; it’s a structural force at work.

Coupled with increasing US debt pressures, uncertainty around tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, capital naturally flows into safe-haven assets. Gold prices have been rising from last year through April this year, with corrections along the way, but each bottom has been higher than the last.

So, can you buy gold now? It depends on who you are.

If you're a short-term trader, the current volatility actually offers good opportunities. Around US market data releases, gold price swings tend to amplify, making technical analysis easier. But you must set strict stop-losses; risking 1-2% is fundamental.

If you're a beginner, my advice is simple: start with small amounts to test the waters. Don’t just blindly pour in when you see gold prices rising. Learn to use economic calendars to track US data releases — that’s more reliable than blindly following the trend.

If you want to do long-term allocation, gold can be bought now, but be mentally prepared. The annual average volatility of gold is 19.4%, not less than stocks. It can double in value or halve. The 2011-2015 period is a vivid example. So don’t put all your assets into it; diversification is key.

Experienced investors can consider a combination of long and short strategies — hold a core position long-term, and use satellite positions for short-term trading during volatility. Especially around US data releases, clear trading opportunities exist. But this requires real risk management skills.

Regarding trading tools, physical gold has high transaction costs (5-20%), and frequent trading can eat into profits. For swing trading, gold ETFs or derivatives like XAU/USD offer better liquidity and more flexible operations.

What do institutions expect for 2026? The consensus is for high-level fluctuations with an upward bias. The average price forecast is between $4,800 and $5,200, with year-end targets around $5,400 to $5,800. In optimistic scenarios, it could even reach $6,000 to $6,500. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citibank and others have raised their forecasts, mainly due to ongoing central bank buying, Fed rate cut expectations, and safe-haven demand.

But here’s a key point — institutional forecasts are not a single path. If economic growth slows further and interest rates decline, gold prices might gently rise. But if policies succeed in boosting growth and the dollar strengthens, gold could fall back. So, 2026 looks more like a high-range fluctuation zone rather than a one-way unstoppable rally.

My view is this: central bank gold purchases reflect a long-term skepticism of the dollar system. Persistent inflation, debt pressures, and geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. As gold bottoms get higher, bear markets have limited declines, and bull markets remain strong. But remember, gold’s rally has never been a straight line. Earlier this year, due to a rebound in real interest rates, there was a sharp 18% correction. Volatility is normal.

So, can you buy gold now? Yes, but it depends on how you buy. Follow the trend, clarify whether your position is short-term, long-term, or strategic, and decide your entry approach accordingly. The key isn’t short-term price prediction but establishing a clear analytical framework, monitoring systematically, and avoiding herd mentality. That’s true investment wisdom.