Recently studying the long-term gold price chart, I realized that the story of the past 50 years is truly quite interesting.

From the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 to now, gold has risen from $35 an ounce to over $5,100 this year, an increase of more than 145 times, reflecting the changes in the global financial system behind it.

I carefully reviewed the 20-year evolution of the gold trend chart and found that there have actually been only three gold bull markets.
The first was from 1971 to 1980, from the dollar trust crisis to the oil crisis, with gold prices soaring 24 times, from $35 to $850.
At that time, people preferred holding gold rather than dollars because no one knew what the dollar would become after decoupling.
But in 1980, after the Fed aggressively raised interest rates by over 20%, gold collapsed by 80%, and then for the next 20 years, it traded sideways between $200 and $300, with basically no gains.

The second wave was from 2001 to 2011, from the burst of the internet bubble to the financial crisis, with gold rising from $250 to $1921, over 10 years, an increase of more than 700%.
This was driven by the global anti-terrorism response triggered by 9/11, with the US cutting rates and issuing bonds to fund military expenses, eventually leading to the 2008 financial crisis.
The Federal Reserve then started QE, and gold rose for the next decade.

The most interesting is the third wave, from 2019 to now, with gold rising from $1,200 to over $5,100 in 2026, an increase of over 300%.
This rally has been driven by global de-dollarization, the US's frantic QE, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions, and continuous central bank gold reserve accumulations.
Looking at the 20-year data of gold trends, I found a pattern: each bull market always begins with a credit crisis and loose monetary policy.

After analyzing these three bull markets, I conclude that the cause of gold bull markets is always the collapse of trust in the dollar or systemic pressure.
Early in the bull market, the rise is slow; during the crisis phase, the acceleration occurs; and in the late stage, speculation heats up.
Each lasts about 8 to 10 years, with gains of 7 to 24 times.
The end of a bull market is usually due to aggressive tightening by central banks to curb inflation, but this time is different—global government debt is too high, and central banks cannot raise interest rates significantly as in the past.
Therefore, traditional tightening cycles may be unlikely.
A more probable scenario is that gold prices will fluctuate violently within a high range for several years, forming a high-level consolidation phase.

Ultimately, is gold suitable for investment?
My view is that from 1971 to now, gold has increased 120 times, while the Dow Jones Index has risen 51 times.
So, over 50 years, gold hasn't performed worse than stocks.
But the problem is, from 1980 to 2000, gold prices hovered between $200 and $300, trading sideways for nearly 20 years.
If you invested in gold during that period, you almost had no gains and also bore opportunity costs.
How many 20-year periods can life afford to wait?
So, gold is a very good investment tool, but it’s more suitable for swing trading during market trends, not for purely long-term holding.

Gold bull markets are often accompanied by macro crises, while bear markets tend to be long and sluggish.
Timing the cycles correctly allows for big gains, but missing the cycle can mean lying flat for many years.
However, since gold is a natural resource, mining costs increase over time, so even after a bull run ends and prices fall back, the low points will gradually rise.
This pattern is very important—never think that a decline means gold will become worthless.

There are many ways to invest in gold, from physical gold, gold savings accounts, ETF, to gold futures and CFDs, each with its pros and cons.
If you want to do short-term swing trading, futures or CFDs are more flexible.
For long-term investment, ETFs or savings accounts are more convenient.

Finally, I want to say that the return mechanisms of gold, stocks, and bonds are completely different.
Gold gains come from price differences, stocks from corporate growth, and bonds from interest payments.
In terms of investment difficulty, bonds are the simplest, gold is next, and stocks are the most difficult.
But in terms of returns over the past 50 years, gold has performed the best, while stocks have been better in the last 30 years.
So, the most stable approach is to hold a proportion of stocks, bonds, and gold according to your risk profile, which can offset some volatility.
Invest in stocks during economic growth periods, and allocate gold during recessions—that’s my basic view on gold investing.