I've just looked at the precious metals market these days, and the recent surge in silver is indeed fierce. On May 11th, silver soared to $86.12 per ounce, up more than 7%, reaching a new high in two months. Copper in London is also strong, directly hitting $13,960 per ton, almost touching the historical peak.

The underlying logic is actually quite clear. On the 11th, Peru issued an energy emergency decree. This country is one of the top three copper and silver producers globally, accounting for over 10% of the world's output. With the energy crisis, production will definitely be affected. Plus, with the current hype around AI, silver and copper are essential for data centers, and demand is also increasing. Tight supply combined with strong demand makes rising prices inevitable.

Citigroup's analysis also supports this logic. They say that copper prices can withstand cyclical shocks mainly due to three factors: energy transition and AI demand, increased military needs, and supply-side constraints. Their near-term target is $13,000 per ton, and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, there's a chance to reach $15,000 per ton by the end of the year.

Silver is performing even more aggressively. Just a few days into May, silver has already risen 15%, far outpacing gold's 2%. From the beginning of the year to now, silver has gained 18%, while gold only 8%. This is mainly because large-scale deployment of AI data centers is happening this year, and silver's usage in high-end connectors and semiconductors has grown beyond expectations. Solar installation capacity has also remained high, further intensifying the supply and demand imbalance for silver.

From a technical perspective, if silver can continue to break through the April high, it means establishing a higher range, and market expectations for $90 per ounce will heat up, possibly approaching the March high of $96.38. UBS strategists are optimistic about silver as a risk-reward alternative, expecting it to reach $100 per ounce by the end of the year. This rally still looks promising.