Lately, I’ve noticed that the trend of the yen’s value has been a hot topic among investors, especially as the yen has moved to its lowest level in history compared to the Thai baht.

In fact, the yen is a highly significant currency because it is one of the top 5 most traded currencies in the foreign exchange market and also serves as a safe-haven asset for investors worldwide.

However, analyzing the trend of the yen’s value is not easy because Japan’s policies differ from other major powers. In 2025, we see that Japan remains the 5th largest economy in the world, with a GDP of approximately $4.19 trillion.

Factors influencing the yen’s trend are numerous, including the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, interest rate setting, yield curve control (YCC) measures, and policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve that affect interest rate changes.

Over the past 10 years, the yen against the baht has depreciated by more than 30%, especially since 2020. When global inflation peaked in 2022-2023, foreign central banks began easing policies, but Japan remained cautious. Despite inflation in Japan exceeding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target.

What’s interesting is that since the beginning of 2026, there are signs of the yen’s recovery. The Bank of Japan reduced its monthly bond purchases from 9 trillion yen to 7.5 trillion yen, causing the yen to strengthen against the baht from 0.2130 to 0.2176.

Meanwhile, the Thai baht remains stable, supported by a recovery in tourism and strong regional trade, but there is still pressure on the yen.

If the Bank of Japan continues to exit YCC and inflation remains high, the yen could recover to the 0.2250-0.2300 range by the end of 2025. However, without decisive action, the yen might test new lows.

Regarding 2026, the JPY/THB exchange rate has been in a continuous downtrend since 2012, but there are signs of recovery at previous support levels. If the support at 0.2150 holds and macroeconomic factors align, the yen could gradually strengthen to 0.2300-0.2400 in 2026.

But if the current base cannot be maintained, the yen might test new lows below 0.2100, especially if Japan continues its easing policies.

Key factors to watch for the yen’s trend in 2026 include global inflation rates, interest rate differentials between countries, the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, and capital flows back to the home country.

Based on recent technical analysis, most indicators suggest downward pressure, but moving averages remain neutral, creating mixed signals. This indicates traders should be cautious.

Overall, 2026 could be a pivotal year for Japan’s monetary policy and significantly impact the yen’s trend, presenting important opportunities for traders and investors to monitor closely.