I've been thinking about the future trend of gold lately, especially after 2026, as market opinions on gold prices are becoming increasingly polarized.

Honestly, this gold rally isn't simply due to inflation or short-term panic. What I've observed is that the global financial system's confidence in the US dollar's credit is in long-term decline. The foreign exchange reserve freeze event in 2022 fundamentally shook the rules of sovereign asset safety. Since then, gold has shifted from being just an inflation hedge to becoming the ultimate counterparty asset against systemic risks.

Central bank actions best illustrate this point. According to the World Gold Council, last year, global net gold purchases by central banks exceeded 1,200 tons, surpassing 1,000 tons for four consecutive years. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years, while also anticipating a decline in US dollar reserves. This is not short-term speculation but a structural shift in global asset allocation.

Of course, there are also many short-term drivers of volatility. Trade protectionism, uncertainty around tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, ongoing geopolitical tensions—all are creating intense market fluctuations. I notice that before and after US market data releases (like non-farm payrolls, CPI), gold price swings are especially pronounced, with short-term gains or drops of 5-10% being quite common.

Adding to this, global debt levels are high—IMF data shows they have reached $307 trillion—leaving little room for interest rate policy maneuvers. As a result, most countries tend toward easing policies, indirectly lowering real interest rates and maintaining gold's attractiveness. Stock markets are already at historic highs, prompting investors to seek diversification, making gold naturally more appealing.

Let's see how institutions forecast gold prices in 2026. The consensus generally falls in the range of $4,800–$5,200 per ounce annually, with year-end targets between $5,400–$5,800. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, JPMorgan Chase even predicts it could reach $6,300 in Q4, and UBS thinks it might spike to $6,200 mid-year. If geopolitical crises escalate or the dollar depreciates sharply, forecasts from institutions like Crédit Agricole and Wells Fargo suggest gold could hit $6,500–$7,200.

But it's important to clarify that the future trend of gold isn't a straight line. Earlier this year, due to a rebound in real interest rates and easing of crises, gold prices retraced 18%, with quite volatile swings. My view is that by 2026, the trend will resemble high-level oscillation with an upward bias, rather than a one-way unstoppable rally.

If you're a short-term trader, the environment of high volatility actually presents opportunities—especially around US data releases. As long as you understand technical analysis, set a 1-2% stop-loss, there's potential to ride the wave. But beginners should avoid blindly chasing highs; start with small amounts to test the waters, learn to read economic calendars, and support your decisions.

For long-term investors, gold is indeed suitable as a diversification tool in a portfolio, but be prepared for drawdowns of over 20%. The annual average volatility of gold is 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500's 14.7%, so its volatility isn't low. Don't put all your assets into gold; diversification remains the safest approach.

Experienced investors might try a combination of long-term core holdings and short-term tactical trades—holding a core position long-term while using volatility for swing trading. This requires strong risk control skills, but in the current high-volatility environment, such strategies can better capture opportunities.

Ultimately, the core logic behind gold's future trend is: central banks' continued purchases reflect a long-term skepticism of the dollar system. This trend won't disappear with short-term pullbacks. Sticky inflation, debt pressures, geopolitical tensions—all remain. The bottom of gold prices keeps rising. Bear markets have limited declines, and bull markets show strong continuation. But the key is to monitor macro signals systematically, not just follow news impulsively.

Think carefully about whether you're a short-term trader, long-term investor, or swing trader, and decide how to enter accordingly. Follow the trend and avoid being driven by emotions.