As I have been following, the Japanese yen versus the Thai baht remains one of the most interesting currency pairs in the foreign exchange market, especially when looking back at what has happened since 2025.

In late 2025, the yen moved near its historic lows, with the JPY/THB pair trading at approximately 0.2176 baht per yen, slightly above the long-term support level. Notably, there was a change in the Bank of Japan’s policy: as they reduced bond purchases, the yen made a modest recovery from its lows.

What truly drives the yen trend comes from several factors. First is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, which remains cautious even though inflation was 2.5% to 3.5% in early 2025, above their 2% target. The policy interest rate remains at -0.1%, which is very different from the United States and Europe.

Second, the interest rate differential between countries plays a crucial role. When the U.S. and Europe began easing their policies while Japan stayed strict, the yen weakened. Meanwhile, the Thai baht received support from a recovery in tourism, strong regional trade, and real interest rates that attracted foreign capital inflows.

Looking ahead to 2026, the problem facing the yen trend will depend on how the Bank of Japan carries out its exit from the easing policy. If they end negative interest rates or seriously adjust YCC, the yen could strengthen to 0.2300 to 0.2400 by the end of the year. But if they slow down policy tightening, the yen could test new lows below 0.2100.

Another factor to keep an eye on is Japanese investors’ repatriation of funds. Amid uncertainty in emerging markets and geopolitical tensions, movements like this often help support the yen. In addition, the yen still has the status of a safe-haven asset in the market. Therefore, if major risks emerge in the global financial system, the yen could appreciate rapidly.

From a technical perspective, most indicators signal bearishness in the short term, but moving averages remain neutral, indicating that the market does not have a clear direction. However, the long-term support level at 0.2150 appears to be an important point. If this support holds and macroeconomic factors align, the yen could gradually recover in the period ahead.

Overall, the yen’s trend in 2026 will be about Japan normalizing its policy, international interest rate differentials, and geopolitical conditions. The key is to closely monitor signals from the Bank of Japan, because their moves during this period may determine the yen’s long-term direction.