I've noticed that the dollar has been showing a very interesting movement in 2026. After all the pessimism that was happening at the end of 2024 and much of 2025, the US currency has started to weaken against the real consistently. And it's not just short-term fluctuations — in April, the dollar closed below R$5 for the first time in almost two years, accumulating a nearly 9% drop this year.

What's behind this? Actually, it's not an isolated factor. There are still very high interest rates in Brazil (Selic at 14.50% even with recent cuts), which keeps the country attractive for those seeking returns in local currency. There's also a strong trade balance — in April, Brazil recorded a surplus of US$10.5 billion, 37.5% higher than the same month last year. More dollars entering the economy means more supply of the currency.

Add to that the foreign flow returning to Brazil. We saw Chinese investment grow 45% compared to 2024, in addition to the Ibovespa being driven by foreigners at the beginning of the year. And there's also the global environment — on days when risk appetite improves, the dollar weakens against various currencies, not just against the real.

Now, will the dollar keep falling? That’s complicated. Exchange rates are one of the most sensitive variables in the market. The market’s own Focus survey has already revised projections three times in just a few months — in January, it was R$5.50, then dropped to R$5.25, and now it’s at R$5.20. This shows how expectations are quite flexible when it comes to exchange rates.

What could reverse this movement? Some scenarios: worsening fiscal perception of Brazil (a sensitive topic), a stronger global slowdown, oil prices pushing inflation higher again, or a hawkish surprise from the US pushing the dollar up. All of these are possible.

But practically speaking, a dollar below R$5 opens opportunities. There’s a more defensive approach — taking advantage of favorable exchange rates to dollarize, reduce dependence on the real, and create protection against future currency weakening. And there’s a more active approach — using the cheap dollar as a base to position in global markets, access international stock exchanges, and diversify into sectors outside Brazil.

The good thing is that you don’t have to choose just one. You can build a dollar-based position when it’s cheap and then use that capital to seek opportunities in dollarized markets. If the operation succeeds and the dollar later returns to higher levels, you get double gains — profit from the operation plus currency appreciation when converting back.

Of course, this requires discipline, risk management, and close market monitoring. Nothing guarantees that the dollar will rise again, nor that the operation will be profitable. But for those thinking about how to take advantage of this scenario, it’s worth understanding all these dynamics — fiscal, interest rates, commodities, geopolitics — because all of this influences the exchange rate.

In the end, the best strategy isn’t trying to guess the next dollar figure, but understanding how this movement fits into your investment plan.