You know, there is a story that perfectly illustrates how logic can triumph even over the most educated people. It’s about Marilyn vos Savant and her famous response to the Monty Hall problem.



It all started in 1990. Marilyn vos Savant, known for her extraordinary IQ of 228, wrote in her column an answer to a classic problem: a participant is offered to choose one of three doors, behind one is a car, behind two are goats. After the initial choice, the host opens a door with a goat and offers to switch the decision. Her answer was simple: yes, you should switch.

What happened next was just explosive. Over 10,000 letters, and almost a thousand from people with doctoral degrees. 90% of the respondents insisted that Marilyn vos Savant was wrong. Math teachers, scientists, people who dedicated their lives to science — everyone was convinced she was mistaken.

But here’s the point: she was absolutely right. If you switch the door, the probability of winning is 2/3; if you stick with the initial choice, it’s only 1/3. It sounds paradoxical, but that’s mathematics. Later, MIT computer simulations and MythBusters experiments confirmed her solution.

Interestingly, Marilyn vos Savant herself went through a tough journey. Despite her remarkable abilities, she faced serious life challenges, even had to leave the University of Washington to help with the family business. But that didn’t stop her from starting the Ask Marilyn column in Parade Magazine in 1985, where she gained fame.

This story about Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall problem became a symbol of the divide between intuition and logic. It showed that even highly educated people can be mistaken in probabilistic calculations. Sometimes, the truth requires not authority, but just cold mathematics.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pinned