May 15 BTC Analysis

Core Logic:

ETF funds have recently been flowing in net, and institutional buying provides medium-term support.
But Federal Reserve rate expectations, geopolitical issues, and dollar liquidity still suppress risk asset chasing.
80,000 is a strong psychological barrier, with many trapped and profit-taking positions above, prone to repeated dips.

Today’s focus:

y=80,000

Bullish ideas

If BTC can stay stable:

Above 80,500–80,800
And with volume on the 1-hour/4-hour charts

There’s a chance to continue pushing:

81,500
82,200
Strong momentum even reaching 83,000

The medium-term trend has not fully turned bearish yet.

Bearish ideas

If:

80,800 cannot be sustained after multiple attempts
Or drops below 80,200

It’s likely to see a wave of profit-taking.

Support levels below:

79,800
79,200
Strong support at 78,500

Especially during U.S. trading hours, volatility may significantly increase.

Today’s higher probability:

I lean towards:

During the day: sideways consolidation with upward attempts
In the evening: likely a quick shakeout
Overall intraday:
“Rally then oscillate” > “Unilateral surge”

Trading rhythm (short-term)

Aggressive long positions: wait for stabilization above 80,500
Conservative: wait for a breakout above 81,500 before chasing
Short positions are best taken after a rally with volume and stagnation; avoid blindly shorting below 80,000

⚡ Daily Market Analysis 📈, the author publishes short-term resistance and support levels daily. Since everyone’s trading system and mindset are different, group members can reference these resistance/support levels, combined with real-time geopolitical and economic policies, to choose the method that suits them best for opening positions.