I. Macro Judgment (Conclusions Are Consistent)

- Main reason for the decline: US Treasury yields are rising → pressure on risk assets, capital flowing back into fixed income.
- Pace: It won’t directly collapse; rebound while falling, and volatility remains weak until September.
- Overall direction: - 2026: Volatility all year, fluctuations converge, liquidity stays sluggish; even if there’s a rally toward the end of the year, it’s not a real bull market.
- 2027: That’s when the bull market returns.
- Timeline (the one you gave): - 5–7月: Slow down + sideways at the bottom
- 8–9月: Rebound and rise
- End of year: Midterm elections → crash
- Next year: Bull return

Core Price Levels (BTC)

- Mid-term long positions start: Deploy around 71,000
- Range trading: - Short-term: Mainly short; rebounds are opportunities to short
- Buy near 71,000 → Continue to short above/around 80,000 on the rebound
- Extreme spot layout (low probability): - 55,000 / 33,000 deploy in batches to fully cover spot (only consider after a deep dip in 5–7月)

 

II. Current Executable Levels (2026-05-16 Execution Version)

1) BTC (Big Cake)

- Short: 79850 short — Stop loss: 80350 (+500 points)
- Take profit: 78800 (-1000 points)
- Recommendation: Use split orders. Half at 79850, half wait for the rebound to add; once it reaches 78800, reduce positions first, betting on continued downside.
- Long (swing): 78650 long — Stop loss: 78250 (-400 points)
- Take profit: 79450 (+800 points)
- Break-down handling: If it truly breaks below 77550 → “eat back” the long stop loss (reverse short or stay sidelined)

2) ETH (Ether)

- Short: 2236 short — Stop loss: 2246 (+10 points)
- Take profit: 2221 / 2212 (-15 / -24 points)
- Breakout handling: Stopped out after being hit (to 2257) → eat back the stop loss; set a new stop loss at 10, take profit at 20
- Long (swing): - First tranche: 2210 long
- Second tranche: 2198 long
- Pending order: 2188 long (sleep order) — Stop loss: 2173 (-15 points)
- Take profit: 2218 (+30 points)
- Get hit and add back: If it breaks down to 2168 → eat back the stop loss; new stop loss 15; take profit 45

3) SOL

- Short: 90.4 short — Stop loss: 91.2 (+0.8)
- Take profit: 88.4 (-2)
- Get hit: If it reaches 91.5 → eat back the stop loss
- Long: 88.2 long — Stop loss: 87.4 (-0.8)
- Take profit: 89.7 (+1.5)
- Extreme long: Add another long at 85.3 (eat back the stop loss)

 

III. Positioning and Risk Control (Must Be Followed)

1. Total position: Contracts ≤ 20% of total funds; spot built up in batches (slowly build in 5–7월).
2. Short positions: Heavily weighted; add in batches (add on rebounds).
3. Long positions: Light weight; swing trades quick in and quick out; only switch to mid-term longs around 71000.
4. Never “hold through” a trade: Execute stop losses strictly; do not move stop losses, and do not add to hold through a losing position.

 

IV. One-Sentence Summary (Easy to Save)

From May to September 2026, it’s choppy and bearish; shorts on rebounds are the main play. BTC turns long around 71000; continue to short above 80,000. It dips at year-end; bull market returns next year. Build spot positions in batches during 5–7월; fully deploy extreme 55,000/33,000.