Just been looking at some interesting macro signals that might matter for the next crypto bull run timing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI just hit 52.7—highest since 2022—and it's been above 50 for three straight months now. That's expansion after nearly three years of contraction. Pretty significant when you think about it.

Here's what caught my attention: historically, crypto rallies have coincided with these kinds of manufacturing expansions. Look back at 2013, 2017, and 2021—all of those bull runs happened when macro conditions were improving and liquidity was flowing back into risk assets. We just came through 36 months of tight financial conditions and manufacturing contraction, which explains why altcoins struggled. Yet Bitcoin still pushed past $100k, which tells you there's underlying demand.

Raoul Pal made an interesting point about this. He's basically saying crypto follows the business cycle, and the current setup might not follow the traditional four-year halving pattern. He thinks we're looking at a five-year cycle this time, which would suggest the ISM should peak around 2026. Makes sense when you look at the data.

So there are two ways people are thinking about the next crypto bull run right now. The traditional view: Bitcoin halving events drive the cycle. After April 2024, we saw consolidation and then new highs in 2025, similar to what happened after the 2020 halving. That pattern would suggest peaks extending into 2026 or beyond. The macro view: PMI expansion means improving economic conditions and better liquidity. When manufacturing activity picks up, money flows into risk assets, including crypto. This cycle could actually move faster than the typical timeline.

What's interesting is that institutional money seems positioned for this. A Coinbase survey showed 74 percent of institutional investors expect crypto prices to rise in the next 12 months, and 73 percent are planning to increase their digital asset exposure through 2026. That's pretty strong conviction.

One thing to watch: liquidity conditions and how interest rates respond to this manufacturing expansion. If we see easing, that typically opens the door wider for broader crypto participation. Geopolitical developments and U.S. regulatory moves will also factor in. But the setup right now—with ISM back in expansion territory and institutions building positions—suggests the conditions for the next crypto bull run are starting to align. Worth monitoring closely as we move through this period.