Just came across something interesting about market timing that dates back over 150 years. There's this old theory from Samuel Benner back in 1875 where he tried to map out economic cycles – basically identifying patterns of when markets panic, when they boom, and when they're in decline.

The guy noticed what looked like a repeating pattern roughly every 18-20 years. So he divided things into three distinct periods that matter if you're thinking about when to actually make money in markets.

First, there are the panic years – these are the ones where financial crises hit and markets collapse. You see them scattered across history: 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and according to the theory 2035 is coming up. The advice here is pretty straightforward – don't panic sell during these periods. Just hold tight and wait it out.

Then you've got the boom years when prices are rising and markets are recovering. That's when you actually want to be selling your positions and taking profits. Benner mapped these out too – 1928, 1943, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and 2026 apparently. These are the windows where you capitalize on the upside.

The third type is the recession periods – when everything's quiet and prices are depressed. Honestly, this is probably where most of the real money gets made long-term. You buy when nobody wants anything, prices are in the basement, and then you just sit and wait for the boom cycle to come around again. Years like 1931, 1951, 1978, 1996, 2005, 2012, and 2023 fit this pattern.

So the whole thesis is pretty simple: buy low during the hard times, hold through the chaos, sell high when boom years show up. Rinse and repeat.

Now here's the thing – this isn't gospel. Markets get influenced by a ton of variables: geopolitics, technological shifts, policy changes, wars, all kinds of stuff that doesn't fit neatly into a 150-year-old cycle. But as a framework for thinking about long-term periods when to make money? It's worth keeping in the back of your head. Even if it's just a rough map, understanding these cyclical patterns can help you think differently about timing your moves instead of just reacting to noise.