5.15 BTC Short-term Trend Review + Logical Analysis

1. Bitcoin (BTC) Trend Verification
1. Yesterday's Prediction Was Accurate
After the previous low was broken, a rebound was expected; the hourly chart showed a golden cross at the bottom, with the low point recovering, indicating a rebound near the trend line. The actual market volume increased with consecutive bullish days, directly surging to nearly 82,000, exceeding expectations but with the direction fully matching.
2. Current Bearish Logic Complete
Structure: Oscillating at high levels within a descending channel, with highs and lows continuously moving downward; last night’s rebound precisely tested the downward trend line, with clear resistance;
Indicators: Hourly MACD divergence is significant, with a strong expectation of a death cross, indicating weakening bullish momentum;
Key Levels: 83,100 is a strong stop-loss level; as long as it holds, the bearish trend remains valid. Breaking above it would invalidate the downtrend, ending the correction and transitioning into a consolidation rally.
The high-position short position around 82,000 is justified; in the short term, focus on testing the lower boundary of the channel and the previous low twice, with a strategy of high selling and low buying within the oscillation range.
2. Ethereum (ETH) Weakness Confirms Core Viewpoint
1. Rebound strength is much weaker than BTC, never breaking through the previous rebound high, indicating insufficient bullish support and clear weakness characteristics;
2. On the 4-hour chart, aligned with BTC, in a high-level oscillation zone, with the structure already turning bearish;
3. Trend forecast: Following BTC’s rebound, a new wave of decline is likely, with a high probability of retesting the previous low, maintaining a sideways downward rhythm.
3. Future Trading Core Conclusions (Fully aligned with your strategy)
1. Short-term: Focus on high-level oscillation, with high selling and low buying within the range, avoiding heavy positions for a one-sided bet;
2. Main Strategy: Position for a bearish trend at high levels, hold short positions as long as BTC remains below 83,100, and follow ETH to short accordingly;
3. Risk Control: Only abandon the short strategy if BTC volume stabilizes above 83,100, then switch to a bullish continuation approach.