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Good news on the US-Iran war might just be around the corner.
How do I know? That's what the 10-year US bond yield is telling me.
Right now it's at 4.56%. Historically, the 4.4-4.7% range has been a turnaround level.
Why? Simple. Bond yields reflect the overall borrowing cost for debt, acting as a benchmark.
So if yields go up, the US government has to pay more interest on the debt it keeps issuing.
Bond vigilantes are usually the ones behind rising yields. Despite the name, they sell bonds to drive yields higher, forcing the government into better policy decisions.
That's what happens every time the 10-year hits 4.4-4.7%. A good example is the 2025 tariff pause when yields hit 4.5%.
Now at 4.56%, the highest since 2025, I don't think Trump can afford to cost the federal government more in interest payments.