#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin's rebound has arrived, but confidence hasn't kept up

BTC rebounded from over 60k to just over 80k, ETF funds are flowing back in, spot buying has resumed, and derivatives positions are also recovering. But the overall capital inflow is at a fraction of the previous bull market, and a thick layer of trapped positions still presses around 86k.
Market structure is improving, but it's not quite the restart of a bull market; more like being moved out of ICU back to a general ward—people are alive, but still far from the gym.

One-minute key points
ETF funds turning positive again: US spot BTC ETF funds are not a one-time influx but have been steadily flowing in over several weeks. It’s like institutions are slowly returning to the table, rather than retail investors rushing in to gamble all at once.
Unrealized losses compressed from 25% to 8%: Relative unrealized losses have shrunk from 25% during the February flash crash to 8%, shifting sentiment from fear to hesitation, but not to giving up. If 60k really is the cycle bottom, this will be the shallowest bear market on record.
On-chain net capital inflow only $2.8 billion/month: Compared to the previous bull market phase where inflows often exceeded $10 billion/month, current momentum feels more like warm water heating—no boiling point yet.
Support at 76.9K, resistance at 86.9K: Standing on the 30-day new entry capital cost line, with a heavy pile of trapped positions from November last year to February this year overhead. This is the tough battle to come.
Coinb active buy orders have turned positive for two consecutive weeks: Resonating with ETF inflows, US domestic funds are serious this time.
Hyperliquid long positions steadily rebuilding: Not a sudden rush, but gradual accumulation. Net long positions have returned to their strongest level since late 2025, reflecting growing confidence in further rises.
Implied volatility fully compressed: Short-term volatility dropped sharply, from 39% to 34.6% last month. The market is pricing in "calm ahead."
Skew converging: Put option premiums are retreating, no longer rushing to buy insurance, and the entire options surface is rebalancing.
82K is a Gamma trap: Market makers have about $2.6 billion of negative Gamma exposure at the 82k strike, so a dip back down could amplify volatility due to hedging flows. This is the most sensitive position in the short term.
Moving from fear to hesitation, not giving up; inflation remains sticky, US bond yields high, financial conditions tight. BTC staying steady in this macro environment indicates underlying demand hasn't disappeared.

To see where this cycle is heading, unrealized losses are a very precise thermometer: it measures the ratio of total paper losses to total market cap. During the February flash crash, this number hit 25%, a serious cold sweat, but still far from past bear market bottoms. After rebounding past 80k, this figure compressed to about 8%, with market sentiment shifting from "fear" to "uncertainty," not despair. If 60k is truly the cycle low, this will be the shallowest bear market on record. This cycle only caused a brief scare, not full surrender.

Unrealized losses: from 25% in February to 8%
The volume of capital inflow still far below the levels seen at the start of a bull market. The next question is: is this rebound a typical bear market bounce, or the early stage of a new bull? The most direct measure is the net capital inflow rate on-chain. The realized market cap 30-day net position change tracks the monthly change in on-chain stored capital. After the rebound past 82k, this number returned to $2.8 billion per month, in the right direction, explaining some of the recent strength. But looking further back, during the 2023-2025 bull run, each major rally saw this figure surge from around $2 billion to over $10 billion/month. Currently, although the trend is positive, the magnitude is still far from that level, indicating the support for this rebound isn’t as resolute or fierce as in the last cycle.

Realized market cap 30-day net position change: $2.8 billion/month
Two lines: support at 76.9K, resistance at 86.9K. Price rebounded from 60K to 82K, a 37% increase, but capital inflow remains weak. In this hesitant state, the realized price based on holding duration provides a very detailed support and resistance map. This model groups investors by holding period, calculates their average buy-in price, and projects their psychological anchors onto the price chart. The recent 30 days’ new entry capital mainly fuels this rebound, with an average cost around 76.9K—this is the nearest support cushion. Above, the accumulated positions from November last year to February this year cluster around 86.9K, which is the next critical resistance zone. These investors are waiting to break even; once the price returns near their cost, selling pressure will be strong.

Realized price based on holding duration: support at 76.9K, resistance at 86.9K

ETF demand reignited
In recent weeks, US spot BTC ETF funds have been flowing in steadily, fully synchronized with the price surpassing 80K. During Q1, ETF flows were consistently outflows, but now the inflow indicates institutional appetite is seriously returning. The key is that this ETF inflow isn’t a one-off big buy but a steady increase over multiple days. It’s like a group of institutions gradually moving money in, rather than a whale rushing in to gamble. The inflow strength is also accelerating with the price, showing traditional funds are not just taking profits but continuing to push in. Compared to the "rebound gets crushed immediately" pattern earlier this year, the market structure has clearly improved. ETF inflows have shifted from a pressure source to a tailwind, removing a major obstacle from earlier this year. If this pace continues, sustained institutional buying could become the core fuel for BTC to challenge resistance levels.

US spot BTC ETF 7-day moving average net inflow: turning positive again
Coinb active buy orders accelerate again
Coinb spot volume net difference has turned positive for two weeks straight, meaning active buy orders in US hours are clearly outweighing sell orders, perfectly echoing BTC’s return above 80K. During Q1, this line was consistently negative, pushing prices down; now it’s the opposite. More importantly, this rebound isn’t driven by a single large order but by multiple positive pulses, indicating spot buying is steadily absorbing sell pressure. Coinb’s activity closely aligns with ETF inflow recovery, both pointing to the same conclusion: US domestic funds and institutional buyers are back. The current structure shows spot market has shifted from sellers back to buyers. As long as Coinbase continues strong buying and weak selling, combined with steady ETF inflows, market confidence will rise, and this rebound’s support will strengthen.

Coinb spot volume net difference: turning positive for two weeks
Hyperliquid traders gradually rebuild long positions
Recently, Hyperliquid’s position structure has been shifting toward longs, with net positions rising along with the price back to 80K. During the Q1 dip to 60K, most traders were bearish; now the sentiment has completely reversed. This wave of longs wasn’t built overnight but accumulated gradually. It shows traders are watching and adding as they go, not rushing blindly. Net long positions are now at their strongest since late 2025, reflecting growing confidence in further gains. The upward movement of long positions with price is a good sign of improving speculative sentiment. But a hidden risk is that as longs pile up, the market becomes more sensitive to short-term volatility and stop-loss triggers, which needs to be watched.

Hyperliquid BTC net positions: longs steadily rebuilding, implied volatility fully compressed, short-term drops fastest
BTC implied volatility has been falling across the board over the past week, with front-month contracts dropping from 39% to 34.6%, and longer maturities also retreating, shifting the entire term structure down by 1-2 volatility points. This indicates the market’s expectation of "big events happening soon" is receding. After recent volatility spikes, spot prices have stabilized, and options markets are pricing in a "calmer future." Volatility compression reduces option costs, especially at the front end, which are most sensitive to short-term demand. The current structure suggests the market is pricing in "no major moves ahead," with supply of volatility selling outweighing demand.

BTC ATM implied volatility: full compression
Volatility risk premium remains positive; selling volatility still profitable. Implied volatility has declined, but realized volatility has fallen even faster. The 30-day realized volatility is now 30.48%, trending downward, with spot prices relatively stable. Meanwhile, last month’s implied volatility remains around 36.4%, well above realized, keeping the volatility risk premium positive. In other words, the market still expects future volatility to be higher than current realized levels. The spread between implied and realized volatility has widened again over the past two to three weeks, returning to about 6 volatility points, after approaching near zero in April. This means that although overall volatility is resetting downward, demand for insurance (buying options) remains relatively high compared to actual spot volatility. For sellers of volatility, this environment remains favorable, even as the entire volatility system softens.

Volatility risk premium: realized 30.48% vs implied 36.4%
Skew also compresses: demand for downside protection wanes
The skew has also been narrowing, with demand for puts retreating as volatility expectations reset. This is most evident in the short term, with 1-week 25 delta skew contracting from about -10% to -4%. Longer maturities (1 month, 3 months, 6 months) have also softened, each losing 1-2 put premium points. Notably, this compression occurred while BTC was oscillating around 80K and macro conditions weren’t particularly friendly. It indicates that options aren’t being bought as insurance but are being rebalanced, making the entire surface more symmetrical. The put-call skew differential continues to decline, reflecting weakening demand for downside hedges rather than strengthening. Although overall skew remains on the downside, the persistent compression suggests downside hedging demand is slowly fading, not worsening.

25 delta skew: short-term from -10% to -4%
Market makers’ gamma makes the 82K region a sensitive zone
Market maker gamma positions cluster around the 82K strike, creating a highly reactive zone. The largest negative gamma exposure, about $2.6 billion, is concentrated at 82K; positive gamma is near 85K, with about $1.8 billion. Currently, spot prices are below 82K, in the negative gamma zone; if prices dip back there, hedging flows will be forced to follow, amplifying volatility—adding fuel to the fire. Conversely, the positive gamma zone near 85K can suppress volatility, making price movements stickier. Capital flows also reveal position shifts: over the past week, 71% of options premium flow on the taker side has been in puts, indicating high demand for downside protection during choppy periods. But in the last 24 hours, 58% of flow has been in selling puts, suggesting some hedges are being unwound. This structure makes the market very sensitive to dips back toward 82K; once near that level, hedging flows could push volatility even higher.

Market maker gamma exposure: negative gamma concentrated at 82K

Summary: structure improving, confidence still on the way
Overall, BTC’s rebound has become more solid beneath the surface. Spot buying is supporting it, ETF inflows are resuming, speculative positions are recovering, and the market structure is healthier than in Q1. The rapid compression of unrealized losses, along with stable on-chain profit and liquidity indicators, makes the February crash look more like a cycle reset than the start of a new bear. But this rebound is very different from the 2023-2025 explosive bull runs. Capital inflows are recovering but still far from the thresholds of the last cycle’s start; volatility is compressing, derivatives positions are calming, all indicating the market is slowly rebuilding confidence—not rushing into euphoria. So, this wave is more like a structured recovery bounce rather than a confirmed trend breakout. BTC is now back in the dense trapped supply zone between 82K and 87K, which will be key for future price battles.
To stay firmly above this zone, stronger spot participation and deeper capital rotation are needed to absorb the overhead supply. Until then, the overall structure is improving, but confidence remains in the process of rebuilding, not fully restored.

This article does not provide any investment advice.