#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin returns to $80k, whales buy wildly, retail investors flee: Is the May curse still effective?

Bollinger Band founder goes all-in, a new whale scoops up 150k coins in a month and a half, ETF attracts nearly $2 billion in a single month... When everyone is saying "the bull market is here," a "May curse" hidden in Bitcoin's four-year cycle is quietly approaching.
On the night of May 4th, Bitcoin for the first time since February re-claimed the $80k level, reaching a high of $82,450. Since the $60k low in February, one Bitcoin has risen by $20k, with monthly gains exceeding 20% at one point. The entire crypto circle is asking: Is the bull market really here? Or is this another carefully crafted "bull trap"?

01 Three forces push Bitcoin to $80k
Bitcoin breaking $80k is no coincidence. At least three forces are working together to push the price past this key psychological threshold.
First force: Institutional funds continue to flow in.
Beijing Business Daily cited analysis indicating that Bitcoin surpassing $80k is the result of "a shift in institutional holdings combined with macro hedging needs." Data shows that in April, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.97 billion in net inflows, reversing two weeks of outflows. The total assets under management for ETFs have surpassed $100 billion. Just before Bitcoin broke through, on May 1st, ETF net inflows hit about $630 million in a single day, providing crucial funding for the rebound.
Second force: Easing geopolitical risks.
In early May, signs of de-escalation appeared in US-Iran tensions. US Secretary of State Pompeo announced the end of the "offensive phase," and Trump also stated on social media that negotiations had made "significant progress." The cooling of geopolitical pressure has reignited risk appetite. CoinDesk reported that since the escalation of US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has risen about 20%, demonstrating resilience of digital assets under geopolitical shocks. As tensions ease, suppressed buying interest quickly floods in.
Third force: Breakthrough progress in regulatory policies.
This is the most impactful variable. On May 1st, bipartisan senators reached a key compromise on stablecoin yield provisions—banning passive yield holdings but allowing rewards based on "real activity." This compromise cleared the biggest obstacle to advancing the CLARITY Act. After the announcement, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from a midweek low of $75.5k to above $78k. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong wrote on X: "Let's get moving."
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 soared from 46% to 73%. In fact, the potential for institutional investors to legally enter with trillions of dollars might be the biggest underlying driver of this rebound.
02 Whales buy wildly, retail investors flee: Who is entering, who is retreating?
Bitcoin hits $80k, and a strange scene unfolds: whales buy, retail investors run. On-chain data shows that in early May, large holders with 10 to 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 16,622 BTC in just a few days. Meanwhile, small retail addresses actually reduced holdings by 28 BTC. Big funds quietly accumulate, small funds fear profit-taking. Within 24 hours of Bitcoin re-entering the $80k zone, whales absorbed 4,527 BTC worth about $362 million. Looking at a longer timeframe, "new whales" (mainly institutions) holding less than 155 days increased their holdings by nearly 150k BTC during this 17.5% rebound—almost the entire market cap increase in a month and a half, almost all "taken" by these more tactical investors. Meanwhile, "old whales" holding over 155 days only added about 1,200 BTC.
On-chain analysts note that new whales realized profits of about $865 million, while old whales actually lost around $87 million. In other words: the new money is coming in to scoop up chips; the old money is patiently waiting for the cycle to pass. Retail chasing the rally and re-entering only accelerated after Bitcoin stabilized above $76k. This aligns with analyst Doctor Profit's previous scenario: Bitcoin first rebounds above $80k, enticing retail to buy in, then distributes at higher prices.
03 Bollinger Band founder: I am fully invested
On May 7th, John Bollinger, inventor of the Bollinger Bands indicator, dropped a bombshell. He announced on X that his managed Tactica fund's quantitative trend model has turned bullish, and he "has fully allocated the portfolio to Bitcoin." This is not just a typical analyst call, but an objective signal from a quantitative strategy model. Before this, the fund held cash. Bollinger's trend model centers on the 20-day moving average; when prices strongly break above the upper band and the moving average, the model signals the start of a "new upward trend."
On-chain data supports the reliability of this signal. Bitcoin has consecutively broken through the "real market mean" ($78,100) and the "short-term holder cost basis" ($79,100)—two key levels. When prices surpass these thresholds—indicating short-term investors are generally in profit—historically, it has often been accompanied by sustained upward movement.
Exchange Bitcoin reserves have fallen to the lowest levels since 2018, with 75% of circulating supply unspent for over a year. In the futures market, the perpetual futures funding rate has turned positive for the first time in three months—short sellers are no longer willing to pay a premium, which could trigger a "short squeeze," creating a self-reinforcing upward cycle. Bollinger's "full position" may just be the prelude to a larger capital influx.
04 May curse: the most dangerous season for Bitcoin? The widely circulated "May curse" in Bitcoin. Analyst Crypto Patel listed three historical declines in mid-cycle years:
2014 May peak, down 76.04%
2018 May peak, down 68.35%
2022 May peak, down 70.06%
"Three mid-cycle years, three May peaks, three catastrophic crashes.
It's no coincidence; it's a cycle mechanism," he concludes. Using the same cycle logic, 2026 might see a repeat of about 66% decline, with bottoms reaching the $30k to $50k range. But will it really be the same this time? Market structure has quietly changed. Post-halving, miners' pricing power has diminished; institutional entry via ETFs has a clear bottom-holding effect; Bitcoin is shifting from individual holders to compliant custodial accounts. Derivatives markets are also evolving. Funding rates have turned positive, and the "negative gamma" effect of options near $82k has created a short-term boost zone—market makers must keep buying to hedge during upward moves, forming a "buying feedback loop." The on-chain valuation metric NVT ratio has dropped over 35%, speculative excess is cooling, and the market is entering a "reset" phase. If past May curses stem from over-leveraged speculation, then long-term institutional logic may be breaking these old "calendar curses."
05 An Chain perspective: "Holding" requires more discipline than "going all-in"
Bitcoin is rising—are you panicking?
Data shows that validator exits surged 720,000% within two weeks—after the series of crypto industry attacks in April, funds are fleeing high-risk protocols and returning to safer base layers. This isn't a structural retreat; funds are not leaving crypto but choosing "more reliable storage." On-chain asset custody by An Chain exemplifies this "more reliable storage."
On-chain locking: rules are hardcoded—assets are locked in smart contracts, with unlock conditions written into code, inaccessible until a preset height, avoiding emotional trading. Users lock Bitcoin into custody with release periods of 3, 5 years, or longer. During the lock-up, market fluctuations are irrelevant—no centralized authority can release your assets early, and no backdoor can be exploited by hackers. Bitcoin is bought, but also "taken out." In increasingly volatile cycles, the real winners are those who can control their impulses, not the hottest speculators.
Standing at the crossroads of Bitcoin at $80k, every investor faces a choice: bet on the May curse repeating, or trust that institutional narratives have already changed the rules?
Analyst Crypto Patel's warning to retail investors shouting "100K" is worth pondering: "Fear has disappeared, retail investors are flowing back strongly from $76K, and they will soon realize this is a big mistake." The real trap in crypto isn't price but emotion. Bitcoin can rise to any predicted level at any time, or fall below everyone's bottom at any moment. The more fanatic the market, the more someone needs to step up and say "Stay calm."