BIT Official: Bitcoin has significantly underperformed Nasdaq since October 2025, with inflation rebound and fading rate cut expectations suppressing the market.

Golden Finance reports that on May 15th, BIT Official released a weekly report stating that if Bitcoin can keep pace with the Nasdaq’s gains, its current price should be close to $140k.
Bitcoin’s relative underperformance may be related to the resurgence of inflation since Q3 2025.
Overall, Bitcoin has generally followed Nasdaq’s fluctuations, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly.
At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3.0%, 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s target, and the interest rate market had begun to gradually withdraw some pricing for rate cuts in 2026.
And this precisely is the true source of pressure on Bitcoin; Bitcoin’s rally logic relies on expectations of Fed easing.
Once the market starts to pull back on rate cut expectations, Bitcoin’s performance often comes under pressure.
Since then, this logic has continued to influence Bitcoin’s trend.
Stocks, on the other hand, are quite different.
As long as the market still views inflation as moderate and phased, a rise in inflation is actually beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance stocks’ appeal as a hedge against purchasing power.
The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, despite our model previously indicating that price pressures might rise again.
The key question now is: will this re-pricing of inflation expectations weaken Bitcoin’s fundamentally positive outlook?
And in this context, how should investors adjust their positions moving forward?