#TradFi交易分享挑战 May 15, 2026 Spot Gold (XAU) In-Depth Analysis

---

1. Price Dynamics and Market Structure

On May 15 before European trading hours, spot gold (XAU/USD) once fell over 2% to around $4,560, continuing a four-day decline. As of the Asian session on the 15th, gold has broken below $4,620, with the current quote approximately $4,621 per ounce. Technically, the daily chart pivot point (PP) is at $4,671.7, with resistance and support zones covering $4,550.72–$4,773.26; key support below is at the strong support band of $4,570–$4,580 and at $4,560. If these levels are broken, further correction space will open.

2. Core Driving Factors

1. Hawkish expectations fully fermented, rate cut expectations nearly zero

US April CPI and PPI data both exceeded expectations consecutively, combined with Middle East conflicts pushing energy prices higher. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have basically disappeared, even beginning to price in possible rate hikes. TD Securities no longer expects rate cuts in 2026, shifting to a view that rates will remain stable. The CME Fed Watch tool shows the probability of a rate cut in June is less than 6%, with actual rate cut expectations delayed until late 2027 or early 2028.

2. Strong dollar suppresses gold valuation

The US dollar index has recently regained upward momentum, currently around 98.10. The dollar’s strength is the core driver behind gold’s breakdown, directly intensifying the valuation pressure on gold.

3. Fed leadership change increases uncertainty

The US Senate confirmed Waller as Fed Chair with a vote of 54 to 45. Waller has consistently criticized quantitative easing, and the independence of the central bank and future policy paths face new uncertainties. The probability of maintaining current interest rates until July exceeds 90%.

4. Concerns about inflation and stagflation coexist

High oil prices elevate US stagflation risks. Markets worry that the Fed and other central banks may be forced to hike rates, weakening gold’s traditional inflation hedge function. Funds are temporarily more inclined to hold strong dollar and high-yield currencies for risk aversion.

5. ETF funds buy on dips, institutions remain optimistic

Despite the ongoing price decline, the world’s largest gold ETF—the SPDR Gold Trust—has increased holdings for several consecutive trading days, reaching 1,039.993 tons on May 13, indicating institutional funds are accumulating on dips. As of May 14, holdings remained steady at 1,039.99 tons.

---

3. Institutional Views and Long-term Consensus

Several Wall Street giants maintain a positive outlook for gold in 2026. Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026 and believes the Fed will cut rates by about 50 basis points, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. JPMorgan is even more optimistic, forecasting gold at $6,300 per ounce by year-end. Overall, institutions have shifted from a "real interest rate pricing" logic to a "global monetary system risk pricing" framework, viewing around $4,500 as a key medium- to long-term allocation bottom zone.

---

4. Overall Assessment

Currently, gold is in a stage of typical "macroeconomic short-term suppression" versus "long-term structural bullishness":

· Short-term (1-4 weeks): The dollar’s strength and hawkish expectations create dual pressure, with gold still in a bottoming and consolidation phase. Key support is in the $4,550–$4,600 range; if broken, it could test around $4,400. On the upside, resistance is at $4,670–$4,700 for a rebound.
· Medium to long-term (6-12 months): Diminished US fiscal discipline, continued central bank gold accumulation (global central banks bought 244 tons in Q1 2026), and hedging stagflation needs form a solid underlying support. As Waller’s policy path clarifies and if the Fed shifts toward rate cuts, gold could usher in a new trend. Historically, when rate cut expectations reignite, gold tends to outperform most assets. The current level is suitable for strategic allocation, entering phased positions, but short-term traders should wait for clear stabilization signals before acting.