Wall Street Bids Adieu to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Ushers in an Era of Historic FOMC Division

The only constant in financial markets is change. Today, May 15, marks the final day of Jerome Powell’s second term as Fed chair (though he’ll remain on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve until his term ends in 2028) and the effective dawn of Kevin Warsh’s first term at the central bank’s top position.

It’s also a period of heightened uncertainty for Wall Street’s major stock indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.75%), S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.77%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +0.88%). Though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been hitting new highs with regularity, thanks in part to the evolution of artificial intelligence, a changing of the guard at America’s foremost financial institution, amid a period of historic division at the central bank, introduces an element of uncertainty that can drag on equities.

Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair ends today, May 15. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.

Wall Street leaned on Powell’s predictability

Jerome Powell’s roughly eight-year tenure as head of the central bank wasn’t perfect. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the 12-person body, including the Fed chair, that sets the nation’s monetary policy – made mistakes during his tenure.

For instance, a historically low federal funds target rate, coupled with several rounds of fiscal stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic, ultimately led to the highest U.S. inflation rate in four decades (9.1%) in June 2022. In hindsight, the Fed waited far too long to begin raising interest rates.

But mistakes are the nature of the beast at the central bank. Since members of the FOMC are relying on backward-looking economic data to guide their policy decisions, America’s foremost financial institution will often be behind the curve in adjusting its stance toward price stability and employment maximization.

Despite these shortcomings, Wall Street leaned into Jerome Powell’s predictability. Professional and everyday investors alike knew that Powell would uphold the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, and would maintain the FOMC’s long-term target of 2% inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell concluded his final FOMC as Chair.

Rates were held steady, but with 4 dissents. The most since Oct 1992.

Miran dissented in favor of easing, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposed an easing bias.

Total dissents during Powell’s term: 31. pic.twitter.com/47UBgfppZP

– Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) April 29, 2026

For the vast majority of Powell’s tenure as Fed chair, he also brought a level of cohesiveness to FOMC ideology. Over the last 48 years, no Fed chair has had a lower average dissent rate per FOMC meeting than Powell (0.46 per meeting).

Even if a Powell-led Fed wasn’t always ahead of the curve, it was common for all members of the FOMC to be on the same page throughout most of his tenure. Predictability bred credibility, arguably making Jerome Powell’s time as Fed chair a success for Wall Street and investors.

Image source: Getty Images.

Kevin Warsh takes over a historically divided Fed

Although most of Powell’s two terms were marked by ideological continuity, the final year of his tenure as Fed chair will be remembered for his public spats with President Donald Trump on interest rates and historic division within the FOMC.

Each of his final seven FOMC meetings had at least one dissenting opinion. The October and December FOMC meetings featured dissents in opposite directions – something observed for only the second and third time since 1990. Meanwhile, Powell’s final meeting as Fed chair on April 29 was highlighted by the highest number of dissents (four) in 34 years.

Kevin Warsh will be taking over a historically fractured FOMC, with one member (Stephen Miran) continuing to push for rate cuts and three members (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan) opposed to an easing bias in the meeting statement.

The incoming Fed chair’s ability to nip this division in the bud and get policymakers on the same page will be put to the test almost immediately. If these clashing opinions persist, it risks damaging the central bank’s credibility and roiling a historically pricey stock market.

What could make this task particularly challenging is that Warsh brings his own strong monetary policy convictions to the table. He’s been openly critical of the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, which ballooned from less than $900 billion in August 2008 to nearly $9 trillion by March 2022. This balance sheet is primarily comprised of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

Kevin Warsh Nomination: one reason why market players are interpreting it as a hawkish pick- I agree-is because of his views on the need for a radical balance sheet reduction.

The $31 trillion-dollar American economy demands liquidity & financing needs that are larger than what… pic.twitter.com/zYunGAItV8

– Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) January 30, 2026

Warsh prefers to deleverage the Fed’s balance sheet, which stood at $6.7 trillion as of May 6, and return the Fed to a passive player in financial markets. But the path to reducing the central bank’s balance sheet (i.e., selling trillions of dollars of Treasury bonds) risks raising yields and increasing borrowing costs.

Trump’s Fed chair nominee also wants to alter how we think about inflation. Rather than relying on a hardline 2% long-term target, he testified to the Senate Banking Committee that he views price stability as “a change in prices such that no one’s talking about it.” This considerably vaguer definition of inflation would, presumably, make it easier for the FOMC to shift its stance on monetary policy.

The argument can be made that a Warsh-led Fed brings more questions than answers for Wall Street and investors. Then again, this same contention can be made anytime someone new takes over as head of the Fed.

Until we observe evidence of ideological continuity within the FOMC under Warsh, the institution that’s served as a foundation for Wall Street for decades, the Fed, will likely be viewed as one of its biggest liabilities.