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Recently, someone again linked the supply of stablecoins with ETF inflows and outflows, essentially saying: don't confuse correlation with causation.
When on-chain stablecoins increase, it could mean they are about to enter the market, or it could just be project teams or market makers pulling out their ammunition, waiting to trigger a wave of liquidity, or even moving back and forth across chains, just for the spectacle.
New L1/L2s that incentivize to boost TVL are more typical; veteran users shouting "mine, sell" isn't without reason—money comes in fast and leaves just as quickly.
Anyway, I treat complexity as an enemy: first look at where the money is coming from and where it's going, then decide whether to get involved.