I now see those so-called "coincidental transfers" mostly as someone walking a path, not rushing to jump to conspiracy theories, but also not daring to say there's 100% no foul play… After all, I've been rug pulled twice, and I have alarms going off in my head.

Let's break it down simply: a sum of money looks like it’s randomly transferred to a stranger’s address, but it’s often just moving funds from an exchange to a relay, then splitting into several small amounts for testing (to see if you chase or if risk control blocks it), then using a few old addresses as "washing pools" to dilute the labels, and finally either going into a contract (market making / farming airdrops) or returning to another address. On-chain isn’t magic; it’s more about habits and cost efficiency.

Recently, there’s been talk about some places increasing taxes and tightening compliance, which basically changes everyone’s deposit and withdrawal expectations: the less certain, the more people take detours, and it’s easier to see these "seemingly coincidental" flows. Anyway, I’m only testing with small positions now, passing by addresses that look legit, and staying away from those that seem like deliberate acting… that’s all for now.