10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above 4.5%, returning to the level of the "tariff pause" in April 2025. The 30-year mortgage rate is close to 7%, inflation hits a three-year high, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next. The "higher for longer" scenario is back—how long can it last?

U.S. Treasury yields: The 10-year has surpassed 4.5%, and in 2026, it is expected to fluctuate between 4.25% and 4.75%, struggling to fall below 4%.
Federal Reserve: Rate cuts are unlikely; the market has priced in a 37% chance of rate hikes before the end of 2026. The first rate cut may be delayed until 2027.
Mortgage and inflation: The 30-year rate is close to 7%, unlikely to fall below 6% this year; core PCE remains above 2.5%, with a slow decline.
How long will it last? At least throughout 2026, with a turning point possibly in 2027. The neutral interest rate has been raised to above 3.25%.
#HigherForLonger # U.S. Treasury 4.5 #Federal Reserve rate hike again