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On May 14th, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the Clarity Act with a 15:9 vote, marking a key step forward in cryptocurrency market regulation. Although the subsequent legislation still requires approval through many stages, I bet on the “Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026?” “Yes.” My analysis is as follows:

1. The core controversy over the “Stablecoin Yield Issue” clause has been approved by the Banking Committee

The deadlock between the banking industry and the crypto sector mainly centers on stablecoin yields. The latest compromise (banning idle rewards but allowing activity rewards) was previously opposed by many bankers, but last night’s committee vote has eliminated resistance to this clause.

2. Strong political momentum: polls show broad voter support for the bill (52% support, only 11% oppose), and supporting legislators may gain about a 20-point advantage in elections. This increases pressure for the committee to pass it, especially with Republican majorities favoring progress.

3. Tight time window: the White House has set July 4th as the target date for presidential signing. Missing the window before Memorial Day on May 21st could delay the bill due to the November midterm elections. Committee members (such as Senator Cynthia Lummis) have emphasized “urgent action is needed.”

4. High likelihood of smooth passage in the House: the House passed its version of the bill in July 2025, and both chambers need to form a conference committee to reconcile differences. The main controversy involves the stablecoin reward clause — the Senate version bans “idle holdings rewards,” but allows transaction incentives; the House version previously passed is more lenient. It’s believed that a version that considers banking industry concerns more carefully in the Senate should face little resistance.

5. The White House has explicitly expressed support and hopes for the “Clarity Act” to pass quickly

Potential risks:

Currently, there are still disagreements between the two parties on the ethical provisions of the “CLARITY Act.” Democratic lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren emphasize that anti-money laundering clauses are weak and call for stronger ethical standards to prevent officials from profiting from crypto projects. This remains the biggest remaining issue. If this causes the Republicans to fail to secure enough cross-party votes from Democrats, the bill may not garner the 60 votes needed in the Senate, leading to lengthy debates or shelving, and potentially preventing it from being signed into law within this year.

My betting strategy is to take a small position and “bottom fish” when the bill faces obstacles and the probability of “YES” drops to its lowest, aiming for maximum gains. If the bill passes the Senate’s collective review smoothly, I will hold a long-term position.