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May 14th, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the Clarity Act with a vote of 15:9, taking a crucial step toward regulating the crypto market. Although the subsequent legislation still requires approval through many stages, I bet on “Will the Clarity Act be signed into law by 2026?” “Yes.” My analysis is as follows:

1. The core controversy over the “Stablecoin Yield Issue” clause has been approved by the Banking Committee

The deadlock between the banking industry and the crypto sector mainly centers on stablecoin yields. The latest compromise (banning idle rewards but allowing activity rewards) was previously opposed by many bankers, but last night, with the committee’s vote approval, resistance to this clause has dissipated.

2. Strong political momentum: polls show broad voter support for the bill (52% support, only 11% oppose), and supporting legislators may gain about a 20-point advantage in elections. This increases pressure for the committee to pass it, especially with Republican majorities favoring progress.

3. Tight time window: the White House has set July 4th as the target date for presidential signing. Missing the window before the Memorial Day recess on May 21st could delay the bill due to the November midterm elections. Committee members (such as Senator Cynthia Lummis) have emphasized “urgent action is needed.”

4. High likelihood of smooth passage in the House: the House passed its version of the bill in July 2025, and both chambers need to establish a conference committee to reconcile differences. The core controversy involves the stablecoin reward clause — the Senate version bans “idle holdings rewards,” but allows transaction incentives; the House version previously passed a more lenient version, which is believed to better consider banking industry concerns, and should face little resistance.

5. The White House has explicitly expressed support and hopes for the “Clarity Act” to pass quickly.

Potential risks:

Currently, there are still disagreements between the two parties on the ethical provisions in the CLARITY Act. Democratic lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren emphasize that anti-money laundering clauses are weak and call for stronger ethical standards to prevent officials from profiting from crypto projects. This remains the biggest remaining issue. If this causes Republicans to fail to secure enough cross-party votes from Democrats, the bill may not garner the 60 votes needed in the Senate, risking lengthy debates or shelving, and thus not being signed into law within this year.

My betting strategy is to take a small position and “bottom fish” when the bill faces obstacles and the probability of “Yes” is lowest, aiming for maximum gains. If the bill passes the Senate’s collective review smoothly, I will hold a long-term position.