I just saw an article from an Israeli account with nearly 1 million followers on X that makes a rather shocking claim: Esmail Qaani—who replaced Qasem Soleimani as commander of the IRGC Quds Force in 2020—might actually be an Israeli spy, and has just safely returned to Israel.

If this is true, it would be one of the biggest intelligence operations in history. Because Qaani is believed to have been responsible for activities related to the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas leader Esmail Haniyeh, and even Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei.

What caught my attention is that there have been quite a few strange signs around Qaani in recent times. Last June, he miraculously survived an assassination attempt on the IRGC Iran leadership during the 12-day war—while most others were killed. Then he survived again after an attack targeting Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, where he was meeting with Hezbollah leaders.

There was even a three-week period when he didn’t appear in public, leading people to think Qaani had been killed in an airstrike. But later reports said he was detained and interrogated by IRGC officials over suspicions that he was an Israeli agent, before being released.

All of these things together add up to a rather interesting picture. It could just be a coincidence, or there could be something deeper going on. Either way, the story about Esmail Qaani is likely to keep developing.