Talking about my recent views on Bitcoin

In the past week, the overall movement of Bitcoin has been a weak oscillation pattern, with highs continuously moving lower, and the rebound strength gradually weakening. The intrinsic bullish momentum itself has already become insufficient. Many people are puzzled: why, despite appearing weak, does it keep from falling further? The core reason is that the strength of the US stock market continues to provide support.

Whenever Bitcoin's natural downtrend progresses smoothly and is about to break downward, the US stock market opens with a strong rally, forcefully pulling Bitcoin back from the edge of decline into a range of consolidation. The 79,000–82,000 range has been trading sideways for nearly half a month, with bulls and bears repeatedly tugging, but the details of the market have consistently revealed a weak underlying nature.

During this period, there have been many positive market signals, and the US stock market has repeatedly hit new highs. Logically, the risk asset sentiment should drive Bitcoin to break upward, but Bitcoin has always failed to surpass the key resistance at the EMA200 above, pulling back after attempts to rise. This is a typical sign of weak consolidation. Bulls, unable to push higher with positive news, indicate insufficient buying momentum, relying passively on external US stock market sentiment for support. Once external support disappears, the downward momentum will be released.

Today marks a key point: the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, officially takes office.
The market generally views Waller as hawkish. Compared to Powell’s moderate stance on rate cuts, Waller is more inclined to strictly control inflation and maintain caution on easing policies, with liquidity tightening expectations beginning to be priced in early. After the news, US stocks have already experienced a substantial plunge, with risk assets under collective pressure and a rise in safe-haven sentiment.

Over the past half month, Bitcoin has been supported by the US stock market and has not fallen; now, once the US stock market begins to weaken and liquidity expectations turn hawkish, the main external support logic loosens. Based on Bitcoin’s recent weak momentum, if US stocks continue to weaken, Bitcoin could quickly enter a sharp decline.

From a technical perspective, the daily double top is clearly under pressure, the four-hour bullish momentum continues to diminish, and repeated tests of resistance at 81,800–82,500 have failed, with bulls already exhausted. Although the support at 79,000 is temporarily effective, it is fundamentally a bottom line of oscillation. Once volume increases and it breaks downward, the downside space will open rapidly.

Of course, it’s not yet a one-sided crash; institutional ETF funds still provide support, and Waller’s future policy stance remains uncertain. In the short term, more likely a structural correction.

The current best strategy remains to buy on dips and sell on rebounds cautiously! #Gate广场五月交易分享