Future 12-hour script: "Good news exhausted" followed by a weak bottoming process

Based on the current 2252 level and the dip to 2236 without breaking, the next 12 hours (until early tomorrow morning) are most likely to be a "volatile sideways with a slight downward bias" bottoming phase. 2236 is a short-term critical support line; if it is broken, the price will seek support around 2200.

1. Bullish and bearish probability analysis

- Bearish / downward oscillation: 70% (target 2200-2240)
- Neutral oscillation: 20% (range 2240-2280)
- Strong rebound: 10% (requires volume breakout above 2300)

2. Logical deduction: three major suppression factors

1. Regulatory good news has been "priced in" (bearish)

The CLARITY Act passing in the Senate committee (15:9) is a historic step, but market reaction remains rational. ETH only rebounded to 2319 before falling back, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario is unfolding. Without new catalysts, this good news cannot sustain a price breakout.

2. Macro liquidity "hawkish suppression" (bearish)

Tonight, there will be speeches by Federal Reserve officials and manufacturing data from the New York Fed. Against the backdrop of high CPI, any hawkish signals indicating "no rush to cut rates" will directly impact high-beta assets like ETH. Institutional funds are flowing back from risk assets into stablecoins, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains weak.

3. Technical side "volume contraction and bottoming" (slightly bearish)

On the 1-hour chart, around 2270, price repeatedly consolidates, with moving averages forming a death cross resistance. 2236 is a short-term psychological support line; the recent rebound is a technical retracement. If volume increases and it breaks down again, it will quickly test support around 2200-2220.

3. Support level analysis (from near to far)

First line of defense (testing now): 2230 - 2240

Logic: This is the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands and the dense trading zone from yesterday’s rebound. After falling to 2236 and bouncing back, it indicates buying interest here.

Judgment: If broken, it will directly test 2200.

Psychological support (strong support): 2200

Logic: An integer level + the previous four-hour low. If 2230 cannot hold, 2200 is a must-hold level for bulls; breaking below will trigger technical stop-loss selling.

Deep support zone: 2150 - 2180

Logic: If macro bearish factors intensify (e.g., hawkish Fed), this could be the limit for a retest.