Federal Reserve policy has changed, and Bitcoin is under serious short-term pressure!

Recently, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have undergone significant changes, further increasing the pressure on Bitcoin's correction.

As is well known, the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to intensify, constantly pushing energy prices higher. Driven by this, the US April PPI producer price index and CPI consumer price index have both shown noticeable rebounds. Currently, the market's previously expected Fed rate cut has basically cooled down completely.

Here is a set of the latest probability data: as of December, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged is 53.5%; the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 1.7%; in contrast, the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 44.7%.

As these probability figures reverse, the Fed's future policy path also shifts accordingly, and the market's overall expectations for the trends of the US dollar, Bitcoin, and gold have also changed.

In addition, Trump is currently in the diplomatic phase of his foreign affairs schedule, and there are no major news events at the moment that could stimulate the market. After Trump finishes his visit to China and returns home, focus will shift to his comments on this high-level US-China meeting and subsequent measures related to Iran.

My personal prediction is that next week, the global financial markets are likely to experience a new round of intense volatility. Everyone should pay close attention to market changes and exercise caution in risk management.

BTC trading suggestion: buy at 77,900-78,400, stop loss at 800 points, target directly at 80,300, and if broken, look for 81,500-82,000.