I've been observing the expected gold price development for some time, and I must say, the situation looks interesting. Last September, I noticed that analysts from major financial institutions started converging around one opinion – gold should move somewhere between $2,700 and $2,800. What's interesting is that I tracked this prediction, and now in mid-2026, I see how things are actually unfolding.

What caught my personal attention is how gold behaves in global currencies. Since the beginning of 2024, the metal has been reaching new all-time highs in every currency you look at – that was a signal that something big is really happening. It’s not just an American phenomenon, as some think.

Behind this growth are several factors. First, the M2 monetary base continues to increase, and inflation expectations remain in a long-term upward channel. I believe this is key – gold simply thrives in an inflationary environment. Some analyses will tell you that supply and demand or economic outlook matter, but I lean toward inflation expectations being the real driver of gold prices.

Looking at long-term charts, I see two interesting secular formations. First was the long descending wedge in the 80s and 90s – and when I studied it, I found that the longer such a pattern lasts, the stronger the subsequent bull market. Then, between 2013 and 2023, a similar cup pattern was forming, which now confirms the start of a new bull market. This convinces me that the projected gold price trend will continue upward.

Goldman Sachs predicted that gold would reach $2,700 by early 2025, and that more or less happened. UBS and BofA had similar views. But InvestingHaven went even further – their target for 2025 was around $3,100, which was more optimistic than others.

Today, in mid-2026, I see that things are developing according to their plans. Their forecast for this year suggests gold could reach somewhere around $3,900. And their long-term goal? $5,000 by 2030. That’s not completely crazy when I look at how things are shaping up.

What’s interesting is the relationship between gold and the euro. When the euro is strong, gold rises. The long-term EURUSD chart looks constructive, so that should help gold. Similarly, government bonds – when their yields fall, gold rises. And given how things are developing globally, it seems yields won’t be rising.

If I had to be honest, I think we’re heading into a soft bull market for gold, where acceleration will come later. These aren’t wild jumpy moves but stable, long-term growth. That, in my opinion, is healthier than some speculative pump.

And what about silver? That’s a story for later. Historically, silver tends to accelerate in the later phase of a gold bull market. Their target is $50, and looking at the 50-year chart of the gold-to-silver ratio, I see a wild formation that could be aggressive this year.