Recently, many people have been asking how to distinguish whether the main force is just shaking out the market or actually preparing to dump.

Actually, this is a good question because if you get it wrong, you might cut your losses at the wrong time, and hold on foolishly when you should be exiting.

I’ve discovered a pattern: the performance of trading volume is often the most straightforward indicator.
During shakeouts, the main force is actually deliberately showing weakness; trading volume will significantly shrink, aiming to scare out unstable retail investors with a slow, downward trend.
But once the main force really starts to dump, the supply of chips becomes unlimited, trading volume suddenly surges, and market activity clearly increases.
At this point, you need to be cautious.

Looking at it from the perspective of the price position.
I observe that the main force usually begins to shake out around a 30% increase, which allows for room to rise further and also enables them to buy more chips.
But if the increase has already exceeded 60%, the risk is much higher.
The main force is likely in dump mode, and you’ll see the price suddenly spike with huge volume at high levels—that’s a warning sign.

The minute chart can also reveal clues.
During shakeouts, the minute-by-minute trend will be particularly volatile, with sharp rises and falls, aiming to induce those with weak resolve to sell.
In contrast, during dumping, the main force will keep the price relatively stable, with a gentle trend on the minute chart, aiming to smoothly offload chips without causing too much market disturbance.

The last dimension is chip distribution.
During the shakeout phase, chips at the bottom will remain relatively stable, like the main force is accumulating ammunition, waiting for the next move.
Once chips start to loosen at the top and gradually disperse, it indicates the main force has begun reducing their holdings.

Honestly, when these four indicators are combined, the market trend becomes much clearer.
The key is to analyze these signals together, not just focus on one indicator.
Currently, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume is around 700 million USD, with a 1.6% increase.
In this mild state, it’s even more important to pay attention to subtle changes in chips.
If you’re interested, you can check out Gate for detailed data on related assets and experience how these indicators perform in actual market movements.