As of May 15, 2026, the Clarity Act has reached a key milestone by passing the Senate Banking Committee vote, but based on the current legislative process, the probability of the bill being enacted within 2026 is approximately 70% (65%-74%). Passage within the year is a high-probability scenario, but several critical obstacles still need to be overcome.

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I. Core Framework of the Bill

The Clarity Act (full name "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act") aims to establish a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for U.S. crypto assets, with key mechanisms including:

· Classification Mechanism: If the blockchain network behind a token achieves "true decentralization," it is recognized as a "digital commodity" under CFTC jurisdiction; if the team still controls the network, it is considered a security under SEC jurisdiction.
· Compliance Modules: Establish a complete set of rules covering initial coin offerings, exchange registration, and broker-dealers, ending the long-standing uncertainty of "enforcement replacing regulation."

II. Legislative Background and Current Milestones

Timeline Event Key Data
July 2025 House passes initial version 294 votes in favor, 134 against
January 2026 Original Senate Banking Committee review Delayed due to Coinbase opposition
January 29, 2026 Senate Agriculture Committee passes its version Covering CFTC regulatory scope
May 1, 2026 Bipartisan compromise on stablecoin yield provisions Key turning point to break legislative deadlock
May 14, 2026 Senate Banking Committee passes 15 in favor, 9 against (all Republicans + 2 Democrats)
Current stage Entering full Senate vote process Need 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles
TBD Senate full vote Expected window in June
White House goal Sign into law before July 4

III. Stakeholder Positions and Core Interests

The legislative landscape is a "multi-party scramble"—various interest groups oppose different parts of the bill, rather than simple bipartisan opposition.

Supporters:

· Crypto industry (Coinbase, Circle, Ripple, etc.): Seeking clear regulatory pathways is their core demand. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly shifted to support in April, stating the bill covers "essential" core content for the industry.
· White House: The Trump administration set a goal to complete legislation before July 4. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the bill will make the U.S. the "most comprehensive crypto regulator in the world."

Opposition/Questioning:

· Traditional banking sector (53 organizations including the American Bankers Association): Warn that stablecoin interest payments could drain bank deposits, estimating potential loss of $1-1.5 trillion, threatening financial stability.
· Unions opposing before the bill's passage: AFL-CIO and other unions warn that the bill exposes retirement funds and other financial assets to crypto market risks, potentially jeopardizing the security of ordinary American workers' retirement accounts.
· Law enforcement agencies (including the Fraternal Order of Police): Oppose Article 604, which may weaken law enforcement's ability to combat crypto-related crimes.
· Some Democratic lawmakers: Elizabeth Warren and nine others voted against, arguing the bill could facilitate fraud.

Key Shift in Supporter Attitudes

Coinbase's reversal is particularly noteworthy. In January, the platform publicly opposed the Senate draft, causing delays; after a compromise in April, it shifted to support, indicating that after months of negotiation, a mutually acceptable balance has been found. This shift is one of the core factors enabling the bill to continue progressing.

IV. Major Disputes and Legislative Barriers

(1) Three unresolved core issues

After the Banking Committee vote, Democratic Senator Alsobrooks explicitly stated that before the full Senate vote, three key issues must be addressed:

1. Concerns from law enforcement about regulatory gaps in financial crime oversight—police and enforcement agencies worry that Article 604 may weaken efforts against crypto crimes;
2. Ethical provisions applicable to all elected officials (including the President)—an amendment banning presidents and lawmakers from participating in crypto activities was rejected 11-13 and remains unresolved;
3. Negotiations to merge with the Senate Agriculture Committee version—the two versions need to be consolidated into a unified text.

(2) Procedural hurdles in the legislative process

The bill still faces numerous procedural obstacles:

Hurdle Explanation
Full Senate vote (need 60 votes) Only 2 of the 15 supporting votes in the Senate Banking Committee are Democrats; at least 7 more Democratic senators need to switch support to reach 60 votes.
Cloture motion to end debate Without 60 votes, any senator can filibuster indefinitely, preventing final passage.
Merging with Agriculture Committee version The two versions have passed their respective committees and need reconciliation.
Coordination with House version The House version from 2025 must be negotiated into a unified bill, then re-voted by both chambers.
Presidential signature The White House supports and has set a target date, so veto is unlikely.

V. Urgency and Political Constraints

The November 2026 midterm elections represent the tightest political deadline: if the House changes hands, pro-crypto Republican legislative alliances could collapse, erasing the bill’s political foundation. Senator Lummis issued a stark warning in April—"Pass now, or wait until 2030."

Industry analysis indicates that if no significant progress is made before August, the likelihood of passing by the end of the year will sharply decline, as both parties are reluctant to give the other a major legislative victory before midterms.

VI. Overall Assessment: 2026 Passage Probability

Market forecast data:

Source Probability as of Date
Polymarket 69% May 15
Polymarket 74% May 14 (after Banking Committee approval)
Polymarket 55% May 1 (before bipartisan compromise)
Expert estimate 50%-60% Early-year assessment (midterm political factors)
Another firm ~50% Late April assessment

The probability trend confirms a key fact: after the stablecoin compromise on May 1, the passage probability jumped from 55% to 68%-70%; following the Senate Banking Committee approval on May 14, it further increased to 69%-74%.

Estimated chance of passage within 2026: approximately 70%

Overall, the bill’s likelihood of becoming law in 2026 is roughly 65%-74%, based on:

· Supporting factors (supporting the 70% range):
· The major dispute over stablecoin yields has been resolved, with Coinbase and other core opponents turning supportive
· The bipartisan result of 15:9 in the Senate Banking Committee provides a solid foundation for full Senate approval
· The White House’s strong push and clear July 4 target
· Both parties are motivated to demonstrate progress on this issue before the midterms
· Risk factors (reducing the lower bound to 65%):
· The need for 60 votes in the Senate—if all 51 Republicans support, at least 9 Democrats must defect, or 7 if 2 Democrats already support; the committee only has 2 Democratic supporters, so a significant gap remains. This is the biggest technical hurdle.
· Alsobrooks’ clear statement that committee votes do not guarantee full Senate support—three major issues must be resolved.
· Merging with the Agriculture Committee version and inter-chamber coordination still require time; if no significant progress before August, the window narrows.
· Large unions like AFL-CIO have officially opposed, exerting pressure on Democratic senators.

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VII. Key Upcoming Timeframes

Date Key Milestones
Late May to June Full Senate vote (expected window)
June to July Senate chamber coordination between versions
July 4 White House’s set signing target
Before August Industry consensus: "last effective window"
November 2026 Midterm elections, potential political shifts

VIII. Conclusion

The Clarity Act reached a critical milestone on May 14, 2026, by passing the Senate Banking Committee, laying a solid foundation for subsequent legislation. The resolution of stablecoin yield disputes and the support shift from Coinbase and other core opponents have increased the likelihood of passage within the year to about 70%.

However, the 60-vote threshold in the Senate remains the biggest technical barrier—support from all Republicans (51 votes) still requires at least 7 Democrats to defect, or 9 if all Democrats oppose. Achieving cloture to end debate hinges on this.

Overall, the bill’s chances of being signed into law in 2026 are higher than not passing, representing a high-probability event. But if no substantive progress occurs before August, the probability will need to be significantly lowered. The outcome of the full Senate vote will be the ultimate indicator of the future trajectory—everything prior remains variable.