A weak rebound after a sharp sell-off! The 4600 life-and-death line is on the verge, targeting 4540!

On Friday’s late session, gold surged up to 4714 but met resistance and collapsed. Today in Asian trading, the downtrend continues with a one-way slide; after the low dipped to 4602, a faint rebound emerged. Currently, price is trading around 4622. Overall, it presents a bearish structure of a “cliff-like fall, weak rebound with no strength,” with the bulls and bears out of balance. The 4600 level is the last line of defense for short-term longs; if it breaks, it will open up fresh downside space.

Technical bearish signals are comprehensively in control: after the TRIX trend indicator formed a death cross at high levels, it accelerated lower. The MACD fast and slow lines are deeply diverging below the 0 axis. The green momentum histogram keeps expanding, indicating that bearish momentum is in its release cycle. Rebound potential is strongly suppressed by the moving-average system. On the daily timeframe, price has already fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages form a bearish lineup, suppressing any rebound in gold. On the 4-hour timeframe, there is a series of declining candles; price is trading below all moving averages. The Bollinger Bands widen downward, and the RSI (relative strength index) has fallen to the 38 oversold range, but no clear divergence is observed, showing that the bearish trend still has continuity. Although support at 4600–4602 is temporarily effective, it only serves as a technical buffer and is unlikely to change the broader downtrend.

Prudent positioning: short in the 4640–4660 zone and also in the 4705–4725 zone on rebounds, with targets at 4610–4590. If price breaks below the 4600 support, you can follow through with the shorts; stop loss at 4620, with targets down toward the key support band of 4570–4540.
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