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Let's do a simple math problem together. Analyze what Coinbase did wrong to Circle yesterday.
Basic data:
USDC scale on Hyperliquid: about $5 billion, accounting for approximately 6.4% of the total USDC circulation worldwide (about $77-78 billion).
USDC reserve yield: currently about 3.5% annualized.
Total annual reserve income for this USDC portion: $5 billion × 3.5% ≈ $175 million.
Distribution: 90% (≈$157.5 million/year) goes to the Hyperliquid protocol;
Remaining ≈10% goes to Coinbase (the deployer).
Circle revenue change:
Before yesterday:
As the issuer of USDC, Circle took almost all of the reserve income corresponding to this $5 billion USDC.
After yesterday:
The $175 million annual income from this $5 billion USDC now goes to Hyperliquid + Coinbase.
Circle's estimated revenue in 2026: about $2.78B annually. With this move, Circle's net loss per year is approximately $175 million.
Total revenue drops by about 6%.
Hyperliquid's revenue change:
Before yesterday:
USDC reserve income was approximately zero.
Trading revenue annualized at 600-800 million.
After yesterday:
Under the new framework, the protocol gains approximately $157.5 million in reserve income annually.
Total protocol revenue increases by about 22-26%.
Repurchasing HYPE 25% more each year.
This matter isn't just about a 5% decrease in revenue for Circle; it proves that the distribution contract between Circle and Coinbase is the ultimate toxic contract.
From now on, as long as Coinbase signs an agreement with someone claiming Coinbase is the USDC deployer, Coinbase can say that this part of USDC is theirs to distribute. Circle gets nothing. Then Coinbase splits the money with others. A win-win. Only a world where Circle gets hurt is achieved.