Is Trump’s team about to leave Beijing—did he get what he wanted?

### The China visit wraps up—what did Trump get?

On May 13, Trump kicked off his China visit again after a 9-year gap. Meanwhile, China-U.S. economic and trade teams were holding consultations in Seoul, South Korea, with He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, leading the delegation.

On the very day he set off, China and the U.S. simultaneously released the “Joint Statement on China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks.” The U.S. pledged to suspend 24% “reciprocal tariffs,” and both sides announced the establishment of a continuing consultation mechanism. This is the most important institutional result of this round of visits to China.

Known achievements list

Technology and supply chain:
• Conditions for releasing access for Nvidia H200 chips: The U.S. Department of Commerce has approved approximately 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia H200 chips, including top tech firms such as Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com. The purchase limit for a single company is 75,000 chips; Lenovo and Foxconn have been approved to become distributors.

• As of January 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce adjusted its H200 export policy from “presumption of denial” to “case-by-case review,” but strict conditions remain: total processing performance (TPP) below 21,000, DRAM bandwidth below 6,500 GB/s, and total export volume to China must not exceed 50% of the total export volume to the U.S. during the same period.

Trade and tariffs:
• The U.S. will suspend for one year the implementation of 301 investigation measures against China in the areas of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding;

• China will correspondingly suspend countermeasures, and both sides will continue extending some tariff exclusion measures;

• China commits to expanding imports of agricultural products, energy, and aviation equipment in order to respond to the interests and demands of U.S. agriculture states and the manufacturing sector.

Shipping and geopolitical:
• Some Chinese merchant ships have been permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, easing shipping pressure caused by tensions in the region.

One-sentence summary: Trump got what he needs most—tariff suspension (to satisfy voters), limited easing of technology controls (to deliver benefits to Wall Street), and a visible large trade order. The cost, however, is “precision control” rather than “full liberalization,” with every transaction subject to U.S. compliance review.

### Worsh officially takes office today—will the Federal Reserve get an “hawkish captain”?

Today (May 15), Kevin Warsh officially takes over from Powell to become the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. The nomination was approved by the Senate with 54 votes in favor and 45 against.

Who is he?

• 56 years old; Juris Doctor from Harvard University Law School; Bachelor of Public Policy from Stanford University;

• He previously served as Executive Director in the M&A division at Morgan Stanley, and in 2006, at age 35, became the youngest member in Federal Reserve history;

• During the 2008 financial crisis, he was a core aide to Bernanke, but he firmly opposed quantitative easing (QE)—earning him the reputation as the “hawkish flag” within the Fed;

• After leaving in 2011, he pivoted to a “pragmatic monetarist” stance, arguing for first tightening via QT (balance-sheet reduction) to curb inflation, and only then cutting rates;

• Son-in-law of the Estée Lauder family—his father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, is an old friend of Trump and an important supporter.

Will he cut rates immediately?

Most likely, no.

At his confirmation hearing, Warsh made his position clear: “I will rely on my own judgment to set monetary policy and will not follow instructions from the White House.” At the same time, his “pragmatic monetarism” theory argues that you should first use aggressive QT to mop up excess liquidity and suppress inflation, and only then cut rates safely—meaning he is unlikely, early in his tenure, to align with Trump’s rate-cutting demands; instead, he will try to prove he is not a “White House puppet.”

More importantly, the real-world data: In April, the U.S. CPI rose 3.8% year over year, reaching a new high since May 2023, while the Federal Reserve’s inflation target remains 2%. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven up oil and gasoline prices, further increasing inflationary pressure.

Market expectations: Warsh’s debut is likely to be hawkish (at least to establish independence first). The June FOMC may maintain the current 3.5%-3.75% interest rate range, and in the second half of the year, the Fed may open a rate-cut channel depending on how inflation cools. The long-term direction of liquidity returning remains unchanged, but the pace will be slower than what the market expects.

### What to do today? Three key logics

Logic 1: The “day of the event” is here—“Sell the News” risk rises

Today, Trump leaves Beijing. All known joint statements and signed outcomes are now on the table. The market will move into a “digesting period”—after good news has been priced in, funds often rush to take profits.

Short-term strategy: Lock in gains—don’t chase higher prices.

Logic 2: BNB is strongly trying to escape; 70% is already a passing mark

In the past few days of market action, BNB has been the strongest performer, but I’ve already sold 70% of my position at high levels. The remaining portion can be fully sold or kept as a small core holding—depending on whether you believe there will be even greater upside later.

Logic 3: Warsh’s speech is the next catalyst

• If Warsh comes in hawkish (most likely), the market could face a sharp selloff—this may be a chance to buy the dip

• If Warsh unexpectedly holds back and stays dovish, the market may briefly rally. Don’t rush to chase; wait for a pullback—the “golden pit” opportunity formed by the stacking of two negative factors

Trump leaving Beijing (good news fully out) + Warsh putting on hawk-like posture (new negative pressure). If these two happen on the same day, there’s a good chance they could smash out a fairly solid entry point. Be patient—opportunities always favor those who are prepared.