Bitcoin drops again, falling below $94,000, erasing all gains this year

On the 17th Beijing time, after rising to $96,600, Bitcoin once again plunged, at one point dropping to $93,778.6 and wiping out all gains this year. As of around 7:00, Bitcoin was down more than 1%, breaking below $95,000. Multiple cryptocurrency products followed the decline.

Coinglass shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 150,000 people worldwide were liquidated in the global cryptocurrency market.

On the news front. In the recent period, market expectations of a rate cut in December have cooled, and overall risk appetite in the United States has clearly fallen.

According to Securities Times, citing CME’s “Fed Watch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has fallen below 50%, at only 44.4%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has risen to 55.6%; the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a total of 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year is 48.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 16.7%.

According to a prior report by Cailian She, short-term interest rate futures (reflecting the best real-time indicator of financial markets’ expectations for Fed policy) show that the likelihood of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting rates on December 10 has already dropped to 47%, whereas earlier last week this probability was still 67%.

According to Morgan Stanley’s forecast, before the Fed’s policy meeting on December 9–10, the Federal Reserve will be able to obtain complete data such as the U.S. September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the preliminary initial estimate of Q3 GDP; the key depends on whether the October and November employment reports can be released in time.

In addition, Bank of America and Nomura have also forecast in their research reports that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in December.

Also, according to a report by CCTV News, on the 14th, Logan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and a Fed official, said that unless there is clear evidence that U.S. inflation is declining faster, she does not support the Fed cutting rates again in December. Logan noted that the current level of inflation in the U.S. is still trending upward, and it will take time to return to the 2% target.

Previously, Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said that the U.S. government “shutdown” has caused missing economic data, making him even more cautious about further rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook also said that, given the dual risks of inflation and the labor market outlook, it is currently not certain whether rates will be cut again in December.

(Statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act on it at their own risk.)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

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