Promote pig prices to stay at a reasonable level! The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reduces the breeding sow inventory

(Original Title: Latest! The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The number of breeding sows with capacity to farrow has been reduced to 37.5 million!)

On May 14, a reporter learned from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs that, to improve the comprehensive hog production capacity regulation mechanism and enhance the precision of regulatory work, the Ministry recently issued the “Implementation Plan for the Comprehensive Regulation of Hog Production Capacity (2026 Revision)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”). The Plan will stabilize the nationwide normal stock of breeding sows at around 37.5 million head and tighten the regulation range. The Plan also makes multi-faceted optimizations, including proposing the establishment of a tiered, linked capacity regulation mechanism and strengthening guidance for production and market expectations, among others.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that it will closely follow the implementation of the Plan, strengthen monitoring and early-warning, press local territorial responsibilities into place, strengthen policy coordination, and improve a comprehensive hog production capacity regulation mechanism that links levels and responds in a timely manner. It will help keep hog prices at a reasonable level and better stabilize industry development.

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the pace at which the national breeding sow inventory was reduced began to accelerate. It takes about 10 months for the transmission of breeding sow capacity reduction to translate into improvements in the supply-and-demand situation. In the later stage, pig prices are expected to gradually move out of the low range, but the probability of a turning-point market is relatively small. At this stage, it is suggested that breeding entities, while doing a good job in cost management and disease prevention and control, release animals according to circumstances and in line with the trend, avoid blindly holding stock and secondary fattening, promptly eliminate low-producing sows, and improve breeding efficiency.

Dynamic adjustment of normal inventory target

The Plan clearly specifies that the overall requirement for comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity is that breeding sow stock is the core regulatory indicator. It adheres to the principles of early warning as the focus, regulation as a safety net, timely intervention, and precise policy implementation. It implements the “province-level agency bears overall responsibility” system for ensuring stable hog production and supply, and the “mayor of the ‘vegetable basket’ city bears responsibility” system. Responsibilities will be tightened and devolved at different tiers. It will establish hog production capacity regulation venues at different levels. Following the regulation thinking of “regulating sows in the long term, regulating piglets in the medium term, and regulating fattening pigs in the short term,” it will improve a comprehensive hog production capacity regulation mechanism with effective linkage and timely response. This is to promote hog prices staying within a reasonable range and stabilize industry development.

The Plan comprehensively considers factors such as the supply and demand in the pork market and improvements in hog production efficiency, and sets the nationwide normal stock of breeding sows to be stable at around 37.5 million head. This is the second time since February 2024 that the normal inventory target has been lowered.

It is said that in the future, the nationwide normal stock target of breeding sows will be dynamically adjusted based on changes such as hog production efficiency and pork consumption.

Regarding the determination of the baseline, the Plan clarifies that each province’s normal stock of breeding sows will use its breeding sow inventory at the end of 2025 as the baseline, and will be determined in combination with capacity regulation targets and local development realities.

Tighten the regulation range

In accordance with the requirements for comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity, changes in breeding sow stock will be divided into three regions: green, yellow, and red, with corresponding regulatory measures to be taken.

This adjustment appropriately tightens the upper limits of the green and yellow regions for breeding sow stock, as well as the lower limit of the yellow region.

The green region where capacity fluctuates normally is defined as the monthly breeding sow inventory falling within the 92%～103% range of the normal stock (including the two critical values of 92% and 103%; the same applies below). Among them, the upper-limit range has been adjusted from 105% to 103%, and the lower limit has been adjusted from 95% to 92%.

Using 37.5 million head as the benchmark, the green region corresponds to a monthly inventory of approximately 34.5 million to 38.63 million head, which is less than the regulatory target of around 39 million head for stable normal breeding sow inventory set in 2024.

Within the green region, market adjustment is the primary approach. In principle, no regulatory measures will be initiated. Agricultural and rural departments at all levels will maintain normalized monitoring and early-warning work, regularly release dynamic monitoring information, and guide the market to operate steadily.

In addition, the Plan specifies that in the yellow region where capacity fluctuates significantly, a monthly breeding sow inventory of 103%～106% of the normal stock means a large increase in inventory, while 88%～92% means a large decrease in inventory. Compared with 2024, the interval values have been reduced by 2 percentage points. If the monthly breeding sow inventory is higher than 106% or lower than 88% of the normal stock, it will enter the red region of excessive capacity fluctuations.

Data show that since July 2025, the national breeding sow inventory has been declining for 9 consecutive months. Since last October, the number of newborn piglets has also generally decreased. In March 2026, the number of newborn piglets declined year-on-year for the first time in 17 months.

Total inventory of over 100,000 head farms included in the comprehensive regulation monitoring list

In addition to the quantitative adjustment of the breeding sow inventory target, the Plan also proposes establishing a tiered, linked capacity regulation mechanism. It will rely on the national direct liaisons and direct reporting system for farms to conduct dynamic monitoring of large-scale pig farms in each locality, with emphasis on understanding their numbers and changes in production and business operations.

For large-scale pig farms with an annual slaughter-out capacity of 10,000 head or more and national core hog breeding farms, they will be included in the national-level hog production capacity regulation venues management on the principle of voluntary participation by pig farms and their cooperation in capacity regulation. Provincial agricultural and rural departments will update the list of regulated farms by the end of February each year. Localities may establish hog production capacity regulation venues at corresponding tiers based on actual conditions.

The incentive measures include that capacity regulation venues that respond to the government’s capacity regulation calls may enjoy priority access to support policies for the hog industry according to relevant regulations.

In addition, the Plan also proposes strengthening window guidance for large pig enterprises and providing dynamic early-warning of operational risks. Large group breeding enterprises (including their subordinate breeding enterprises) with a total breeding sow inventory of over 100,000 head will be included in the national comprehensive monitoring list for hog production capacity regulation. Each province will determine the regulation and monitoring list for its region according to actual conditions. For enterprises on the monitoring list, annual production filing management will be implemented. The responsibility for production filing by breeding enterprises on the monitoring list will be tightened, and a tracking, evaluation, incentive, and constraint mechanism will be improved.

Focus on counter-cyclical adjustment, strengthen production and market monitoring and early-warning, and guide breeding farms and households to comprehensively regulate the market supply of hogs and the supply of pork, so as to stabilize market prices. This can be done by adjusting breeding sow mating and culling plans, adjusting piglet replenishment plans, and adjusting the slaughter weights of fattening pigs.

【Author: Jiang Shan】　(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Pig price