Risk Warning — The Top Three Short-Term Risks for NVIDIA

Even the best companies have risks. What should we be cautious about in May?

Although I am long-term bullish on NVIDIA, as a responsible analyst, I must point out the risk factors that may affect the stock price in the short term (especially within May). When participating in Polymarket predictions, you also need to consider whether these risks could cause the price to fall below expectations.

Risk One: Profit-taking Selling Pressure
The stock price rose from $205 at the beginning of May to $227, an increase of over 10%. Some short-term traders and leveraged funds may take profits around $230, creating short-term downward pressure on the market. Historically, after a continuous rally, a 3–5% pullback is normal. If the pullback exceeds 5%, it may trigger programmatic stop-losses, further pushing the price down to $215–$218.

Risk Two: Macro Unexpected Events
Although macro data in May is light, we cannot rule out geopolitical events (such as an escalation of conflicts in a certain region) or liquidity shocks (such as a major institution getting liquidated). These risks are unpredictable, but once they happen, NVIDIA, as one of the most liquid stocks, may be sold off first.

Risk Three: Short-Term Sentiment Impact from Competitive News
If there is news claiming that “Google TPU v7 outperforms B200” or that “Amazon significantly reduces NVIDIA orders,” even if the news is not entirely true, it could trigger a short-term decline in the stock price. This sentiment risk is especially sensitive when the stock price is at a high level.

Overall, I believe the lower bound of NVIDIA’s price in May is $215–$220 (probability 15%), and the upper bound is $245–$250 (probability 25%). The most core range is still $225–$240. On Polymarket, I would choose $230–$240, because even if there is a pullback, the probability of a recovery toward the end of the month is higher.
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