Historical Comparison — Will NVIDIA Reenact the 2024–2025 Bull Market?

After ten times growth in three years, can it keep doubling? What does history tell us?

From early 2023 to May 2026, NVIDIA’s stock price rose from $15 (adjusted for splits) to $227, an increase of more than 14 times. Many people ask: Can it keep rising? Let’s compare it with historical super-growth stocks.

Comparison One: Microsoft 1990–2000
Microsoft rose about 80 times from 1990 to 2000. Its P/E ratio once exceeded 60 times. But afterward, due to antitrust issues and the burst of the dot-com bubble, the stock traded sideways for more than ten years. The difference is that NVIDIA’s current P/E ratio is far below Microsoft’s peak back then, and the overall market space for AI is much larger than the PC software market in the 1990s.

Comparison Two: Apple 2005–2015
From iPod to iPhone, Apple rose 30 times over a decade. In that cycle, Apple’s PEG stayed in the range of 0.5–0.8 for the long term, which is very similar to NVIDIA’s situation today. Apple’s stock price had a 40% pullback in 2012–2013, but then it surged by 2 times again. NVIDIA also saw a pullback of more than 20% in mid-2024, but then it continued to hit new highs.

Comparison Three: Tesla 2020–2021
Tesla surged 10 times within a year, but afterward, as competition intensified and a valuation bubble formed, the stock price was cut in half—and then cut in half again. Tesla’s forward P/E at the time once exceeded 150, while NVIDIA’s was only 12. So the two are not comparable.

History tells us: Super-growth stocks can still keep rising in the middle-to-late stages of a large cycle, but volatility will increase. For the rest of May, I don’t think there will be a major pullback; upward movement remains the main theme. Predicted price range: $235–$248.
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