Bitcoin, or pushed down to the $43,000 level... Cycle bottom warning

Crypto analyst Bee believes that Bitcoin (BTC)'s current rebound is just a “short-term correction,” and predicts that the true bottom may be around $43,000. Although the recent price briefly broke above $80k, he judges that Bitcoin has not yet entered a genuine bull market transition phase.

In an analysis published on X on the 11th, Bee claimed that Bitcoin is closer to the bottom of its historical cycle. He believes that after Bitcoin broke through $126,200 in October 2025, it has been repeatedly experiencing sharp declines and rebounds within a downward channel. In particular, he is skeptical about whether the rebound after dropping to $59,900 in February has already constituted a trend reversal.

According to Bee’s chart analysis, Bitcoin faced resistance when rebounding to around $83,000, and he then set the next major downside target at $43,035. Compared to the current trading level of about $79,000, this suggests there could still be over 45% of downside potential. At an exchange rate of $1 = 1,492.50 KRW, this is approximately 64.3 million KRW.

He pointed out that bear market cycles usually last 365 days, and the current bear market has entered its 217th day. In other words, the “final shakeout” may not have ended yet. Bee predicts that only after the bottom is confirmed can the market stabilize again, and Bitcoin may potentially return to $100k around 2027.

However, there are also many opinions in the market that the bottom has passed. Some consider around $50k as the low point and predict that the rebound will continue, leading to serious disagreements in interpretations of Bitcoin (BTC). In the short term, rather than the price itself, whether the downward channel is broken will be a key variable in determining market direction.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai
🔎 Market interpretation Despite Bitcoin’s rebound to $80k, it is still interpreted as being within a downward channel, with some analysts emphasizing the possibility of further declines. There is a view that this is not a true bull market, but a “rebound within a bear market.”
💡 Strategy points Compared to chasing short-term rebounds, whether the downward channel is broken is the key signal. It is necessary to consider the possibility of dropping into the $40k range and develop risk management strategies accordingly. When market interpretations are divided, a phased buying and cash-holding strategy is effective.
📘 Terminology explanation Downward channel: A trend range where prices gradually decline within a certain range. Cycle bottom: The lowest point formed within a market cycle. Bear market rebound: A temporary upward movement during a downtrend.

💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Bitcoin has clearly risen, why is it still considered a bear market? Even if the price temporarily rises, if the overall trend shows lower highs and lower lows, it is still regarded as a downtrend. The current rebound is usually interpreted as a rebound within a bear market, not a sign of a long-term upward trend reversal.
Q. Is the prediction of dropping to $40k realistic? Although some technical analyses suggest this possibility, many in the market believe the bottom has already passed. In other words, this is just scenario analysis, not a certain future, and it may change due to various variables.
Q. What is the most important checkpoint when investing now? More important than the price is whether the downward channel has truly been broken. Before trend reversal is confirmed, the market remains highly volatile, so phased buying and risk management are considered core strategies.

TP AI notes This article summary is generated based on TokenPost.ai’s language model. It may omit main content from the original or differ from facts.